Christmas Day Rain & New Year's Forecast

Hi everyone. Unfortunately, it looks like Savannah, the Skidaway Island area, and most of southeastern Georgia will see rain on Christmas Day. However, temperatures in the area will be slightly above seasonal levels, given the warm air flowing from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a cold front that will impact us tomorrow.

This chance of rain has been caused by a relatively strong low pressure system centered near Missouri, propagating northeastward and the resulting cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The front has already spawned several tornadoes in Eastern Texas and parts of Louisiana. It does though look as if we will not have to endure the brunt of the severe weather in our area, even though the Storm Prediction Center has put our area under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (Christmas Day). http://2.ly/dym

Severe weather parameters for the area are marginal and I feel that the potential for tornadoes, the main threat throughout today with the front, will be rather limited. High winds from thunderstorms will be the greatest threat in the area. But again, the potential threat for severe weather will remain low.

Looking at the long-range models, I have seen that the GFS forecast model has begun to show a massive blizzard impacting the northeast states starting New Year's Eve and continuing through New Year's Day. This is extremely unlikely, as the model--at the same time as the blizzard in the Northeast--shows flurries in eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Interestingly enough though, I was reading an intriguing article written by Joe Bastardi, a senior meteorologist at Accuweather, who believes that the United States could see the "coldest 10-day opening to January" in nearly twenty-five years. I found this particularly interesting given the level of cold air the same model showing the massive blizzard in the Northeast shows in the long-range.

Whatever the case, cold air will be widespread in the United States during the new year. It is less likely though that this cold air will be in our area. More than likely, we will see seasonable or slightly cooler temperatures in January. As would be expected, the areas that will be most affected by this cold air will be the Plains states, who are at the present experiencing near-blizzard conditions.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Enjoy the new year!