Monday, January 18, 2010

Storm System Moves in Thursday, Another by Sunday

The past two days have been especially pleasant because we have experienced some incredibly cold temperatures over the past two weeks. Temperatures in the 60s--and possibly some 70s--will prevail more or less during the next week. The next storm system is poised to invade the area by Thursday afternoon and evening, bringing quite a bit of rain (possibly over 1" in some places).

To that end, the Storm Prediction Center has said that the possibility for severe weather exists on Thursday and then later in the weekend as yet another rain event enters the region. Most of the models that I have seen keep the first first system stronger and more-potent and downplay the storm system this weekend and early next week.

Enjoy this warm weather. Some meteorologists' blogs I have read elude to another cold spell during early February but I am a bit skeptical. The GFS long-range keeps the zonal flow in place, absent the relatively few disturbances that do traverse the country.

Friday, January 8, 2010

No Snow this Morning & Past Week's Observations

The snow/frozen precipitation did not materialize this morning as the colder air moving behind the cold front associated with the low pressure system lagged behind. Had those surface temperatures progressed any further southeast, the potential would have existed for wintry precipitation. The 850mb temperatures on the GFS model remained just behind the main bulk of the moisture and this lack of freezing air caused the lack of frozen precipitation. Added to that, surface temperatures this morning around 6AM ET were around 42°F--far too warm for snow on the surface. The relative humidity remained high as well.

Temperature Observations from Monday 1/4/10 until Friday 1/8/10
From the Skidaway Island Weather Center

Monday - Low:
26.0°F High: 59.3°F
Tuesday - Low: 26.2°F High: 45.0°F
Wednesday - Low: 28.0°F High: 59.3°F
Thursday - Low: 29.0°F High: 48.0°F
Friday - Low: 32.0°F High: 47.0°F


Stay warm because it will certainly be cold this weekend! Temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s. It begins to warm up, however, by the middle to end of next week (...even though that warm up will not be significant).

Sunday, January 3, 2010

Possible Wintry Precipitation by Week's End

The cold weather that the area has experienced over the past day or so will continue throughout the area, as more arctic air makes its way into the southeastern United States. It's so cold in fact that central Florida and interior portions of southern Florida are preparing for an incredibly intense cold spell later this week. During Thursday and Friday morning, temperatures in the lower 30s(F), and possibly upper 20s(F) in some places, will be a commonplace.

The operational weather models continue to indicate a prolonged event of unseasonably cold temperatures during the next week. Even on the islands of southeast Georgia, where sub-freezing temperatures are not traditionally observed, widespread temperature readings in the 20s could be experienced. In fact, some models, namely the GFS, are showing surface temperatures below 20°F on Skidaway Island. The next low pressure system will move through the area during the same time frame, increasing surface temperatures slightly by the end of the week--Thursday and Friday. This system could result in an increase in overall moisture, and if the colder air is able to stay uniformly through the atmosphere before the bulk of the precipitation moves offshore, some type of frozen precipitation could occur. And that temperature profile of the atmosphere will ultimately determine what--if any--precipitation will result. It's unlikely that we'll see any precipitation in Coastal Empire though as model runs of the GFS, and more so of the DGEX have backed off the idea of wintry precipitation.

We'll see what happens. In the meantime, stay warm!

Friday, January 1, 2010

Extreme Cold during the Next Week

I just wanted to talk a bit about the cold temperatures--bitterly cold temperatures in some parts of the country--that will affect the Savannah area later this week.

The next ten days will be brutally frigid for parts of the Plains states. Take a look at this image, depicting the surface temperatures of the GFS model for the 12Z model run. Note the sprawling area of -20°F and lower temperatures in parts of the Red River valley of Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. These areas will certainly experience the brunt of the cold weather as the ensuing days approach. The image below shows projected temperatures at 12Z Jan. 8 or 7AM ET and 6AM CT. I would not be surprised to see locations in that area stay below 0°F for the entirety of the 8th.

What's striking is the amount of winter weather we have experienced thus far into the winter season. The cold air has certainly been in place, and the winter storms we have experienced have all been severe, such as the December 18 - 20 blizzard for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the snow storm affecting parts of Maine at the present. And make no mistake, this is not the end of the season, forecasters and meteorologists are continuing to predict a cold and active winter for most of the United States, particularly the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and the Plains. But the indirect effects, like achingly frigid temperatures for regions not particularly prone to these conditions, could be what makes the season known over the coming years.

For the Savannah area, the coldest temperatures should be felt on Tuesday morning but this will not be the end of the cold pattern. Unlike what would usually be expected, the frigid, polar air mass will remain in place for the next week at least as more icy cold streams into the Deep South. On Tuesday, temperature could drop to 30°F at the airport and slightly warmer on the coast. But later on in the week, near the 8th as the GFS model run depicts above, the entire Savannah River Valley as well as the islands of southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina could see sub-freezing temperatures--very unusual.

Happy New Year! Be sure to stay warm as the next week will be a cold one.