New Year's Day Storm for the Northeast

Times Square for the New Year's celebration could be snowy and cold, according to current trends and forecasting data. It's too early to begin stating in a definite way that it will snow in New York's Times Square when the ball drops to bring in the new year; but most of the forecast models and the weather parameters have begun to elude to low pressure development and propagation up the East Coast.

The GFS forecast model showed a massive low pressure system moving into the northeast on the 6Z run but that later disappeared on the subsequent ones. The North Atlantic Oscillation values have turned extremely negative, and typically when you see this, there is a higher than normal likelihood of weather system development along or just east of the Continental United States. At one point on the 6Z run, the model showed heavy frozen precipitation in the Southeast, even in eastern Georgia and South Carolina. That's very unlikely, but it points to the fact that the GFS has picked up on something that could develop for the new year.

The DGEX model, on the other hand, forecasts a slightly weaker system but that it will move off the coast faster and will not affect as much of the mainland as the GFS model. The NAM model, while only showing the next 84 hours, shows the low pressure system developing in the Gulf of Mexico that could move through the Southeast and then move off the coast. At that point, the low would either turn toward the United States or move off the coast as a weaker system.

What's even more interesting--there's another storm that the GFS is showing the long-range that could be even stronger and more potent that this one.

It's a difficult situation to forecast. We'll keep you updated. I hope everyone had a wonder Christmas and a happy holiday.