Updated New Year's Forecast

The two major models continue to differ in the short-term forecast guidance. The NAM forecast model suggests a drier frontal passage while the GFS shows more moisture and greater precipitation. The NAM seems to be too dry and the GFS looks more likely but because of the disparity between the two solutions I am guessing we will experience a hybrid of them.

A slight risk of rain will exist today (12/30) but the greater chance will exist tomorrow as the bulk of the low-level moisture enters the area. Throughout the day on Thursday, there will be a chance of rain showers and as the day progresses, chances of precipitation will rise. By 10PM (12/31), the front will enter eastern Georgia and the last of the precipitation will exist the coast by early Friday morning.

Temperatures around the area will reach approximately 58°F on Thursday. Friday morning, the low will drop to about 52°F on the islands and 49°F inland. During the day Friday, 59°F will be the high temperature and winds will pick up to around 15 - 20mph from the West.

Expect cold temperatures, even on the islands, this weekend and early next week with lows possibly creeping down to 25°F on Tuesday morning.

Happy New Year!

Is it going to rain for the New Year's Festivities?

Rain could move into the area by New Year's Eve and stay in the area overnight into the first day of the new year however I believe the precipitation will be isolated. It is unlikely that we will see a steady rain. At most, we should see decent weather for Thursday, with sporadic rain showers moving into the area by 9PM and that chance of on-and-off rain will continue through the night. The precipitation chances should shrink to close to zero by 12PM on Friday as colder, much colder air in fact, moves into the area. The New Year's weekend looks to become one of the coldest thus far.

New Year's Forecasts

BOTTOM LINE - Temperatures will be cool but not cold on New Year's Eve and Day; precipitation chances will be greatest Thursday (12/31) night and early Friday (1/1/10) morning. However any rain that develops will likely be light dropping little accumulating rain. Probability of Precipitation - 50% inland; 35% along coast.

First few days of the New Year - Very cold and temperatures in Savannah could drop to sub-freezing temperatures for several hours in the mornings (mainly 1/2 - 1/5); along the coast, temperatures could very well drop below 32°F which is highly unusual.

Thurs., December 31, 2009 - High around 54°F and Low approaching 45°F (thought that may occur just after midnight and rise steadily as the morning progresses). Precipitation develops after 6AM ET and chances continue to increase as day progresses. Can't rule out showers moving inland from ocean, as moisture is pulled into frontal zone. Any precipitation will bring little accumulation.

Fri., January 1, 2010 - High reaching around 53°F (but again, this will probably be reached in the early morning) and lows around 42°F (likely reached during last evening hours). Rain chances will diminish drastically by 9AM.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows little precipitation accumulation for Wednesday and Thursday (from 12/30 7PM ET to 12/31 7PM ET, respectively) and keeps that same pattern of relatively small amounts of precipitation for the area, including Skidaway Island. The first image below is the forecast and note how the high amounts of precipitation have not fallen over the Savannah area, they remain to the west. The same holds true for the second images, which shows precipitation accumulation from 12Z 12/31/09 until 12Z 1/2/10 of around a tenth of an inch.

Two major models, the GFS (18Z) and the NAM (0Z 12/29), both paint different pictures for this upcoming week. The GFS continues to keep moisture in the area much more so by Thursday night, while temperatures throughout the first part of the week remain cool and warm gradually as rain chances increase. The NAM keeps the area drier and cooler, giving the Savannah area a relatively calm weather day on Thursday night and Friday morning.

As for the blizzard that could impact parts of the Northeast around the first of January, the models are essentially guessing haphazardly how strong the storm will be in terms of pressure, whether the storm will have a more easterly or westerly component, and if the precipitation line will be far enough south to impact the ball drop in Times Square. I believe the chances are slim for snow or frozen precipitation on New Year's Eve and the early morning hours of New Year's Day. Most all the models remain in agreement that some type of low pressure system will impact the East Coast and the rain/snow line continues to be located incredibly near the New York City metro area. So this certainly points to the fact that could potential be some mixed precipitation in the general area--but I would not put much faith in that possibility.

On another note, a Freeze Warning is in effect from this evening until 9AM ET tomorrow morning (12/29/09). This event will bring the coldest temperatures of the season to coastal locations, including Halfmoon Landing, Fort McAllister, and Darien.

Stay Warm!

Ways to Communicate with the Skidaway Island Weather Center

Take a quick look at the Social Media websites the Skidaway Island Weather Center is utilizing to communicate with others in our community.

New Year's Day Storm for the Northeast

Times Square for the New Year's celebration could be snowy and cold, according to current trends and forecasting data. It's too early to begin stating in a definite way that it will snow in New York's Times Square when the ball drops to bring in the new year; but most of the forecast models and the weather parameters have begun to elude to low pressure development and propagation up the East Coast.

The GFS forecast model showed a massive low pressure system moving into the northeast on the 6Z run but that later disappeared on the subsequent ones. The North Atlantic Oscillation values have turned extremely negative, and typically when you see this, there is a higher than normal likelihood of weather system development along or just east of the Continental United States. At one point on the 6Z run, the model showed heavy frozen precipitation in the Southeast, even in eastern Georgia and South Carolina. That's very unlikely, but it points to the fact that the GFS has picked up on something that could develop for the new year.

The DGEX model, on the other hand, forecasts a slightly weaker system but that it will move off the coast faster and will not affect as much of the mainland as the GFS model. The NAM model, while only showing the next 84 hours, shows the low pressure system developing in the Gulf of Mexico that could move through the Southeast and then move off the coast. At that point, the low would either turn toward the United States or move off the coast as a weaker system.

What's even more interesting--there's another storm that the GFS is showing the long-range that could be even stronger and more potent that this one.

It's a difficult situation to forecast. We'll keep you updated. I hope everyone had a wonder Christmas and a happy holiday.

Christmas Day Rain & New Year's Forecast

Hi everyone. Unfortunately, it looks like Savannah, the Skidaway Island area, and most of southeastern Georgia will see rain on Christmas Day. However, temperatures in the area will be slightly above seasonal levels, given the warm air flowing from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a cold front that will impact us tomorrow.

This chance of rain has been caused by a relatively strong low pressure system centered near Missouri, propagating northeastward and the resulting cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The front has already spawned several tornadoes in Eastern Texas and parts of Louisiana. It does though look as if we will not have to endure the brunt of the severe weather in our area, even though the Storm Prediction Center has put our area under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (Christmas Day). http://2.ly/dym

Severe weather parameters for the area are marginal and I feel that the potential for tornadoes, the main threat throughout today with the front, will be rather limited. High winds from thunderstorms will be the greatest threat in the area. But again, the potential threat for severe weather will remain low.

Looking at the long-range models, I have seen that the GFS forecast model has begun to show a massive blizzard impacting the northeast states starting New Year's Eve and continuing through New Year's Day. This is extremely unlikely, as the model--at the same time as the blizzard in the Northeast--shows flurries in eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Interestingly enough though, I was reading an intriguing article written by Joe Bastardi, a senior meteorologist at Accuweather, who believes that the United States could see the "coldest 10-day opening to January" in nearly twenty-five years. I found this particularly interesting given the level of cold air the same model showing the massive blizzard in the Northeast shows in the long-range.

Whatever the case, cold air will be widespread in the United States during the new year. It is less likely though that this cold air will be in our area. More than likely, we will see seasonable or slightly cooler temperatures in January. As would be expected, the areas that will be most affected by this cold air will be the Plains states, who are at the present experiencing near-blizzard conditions.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Enjoy the new year!

Strong Thunderstorms Expected | Our Twitter Page

Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day on Thursday and Friday. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe with strong thunderstorms likely impacting a majority of the area around Skidaway Island. I expect the majority of lightning-producing thunderstorms will develop after 2pm in the afternoon in the far southwestern areas of southeastern Georgia. Fairly benign thunderstorms (if you could use that term) will develop mainly in the afternoon and progress toward the north and north-east. 

We also have a twitter feed that will have up-to-the-second severe weather updates should that weather develop. Our twitter ID is 'skidawayweather' and our page is located at http://www.twitter.com/skidawayweather/. 

Why have we received so much rain?

Have any of you wondered why it has been so dreary this last few days? Chances are: you have. The continuing presence of a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico has led to an increase it overall areal coverage of precipitation in our area. And unlike most convection/precipitation that moves into our area, it does so by moving from the west toward the east (roughly). Typically, these systems that affect us do not have the same effect as a stationary--or partially stationary--low pressure that has brought rain the past five days. 

The Savannah International Airport reports that today we have seen 1.61" so far. That's not incredible; however, combined with other totals in that range for the past few days, that adds icing on the cake--a cake that already has four inches in the past week. 

I am sure most of you have seen the low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico and pondered the idea of a tropical low pressure system. Though the prospect did look promising earlier this week, that did not materialize. In fact, the subtropical low pressure was consumed by a mid- and upper-level low pressure and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center lost hope entirely (or lost hope in the lightest sense as most of the meteorologists and "hurricane specialists" did not want to spend hours tracking a potentially deadly and mass hysteria-creating cyclone that would accompany that task). The above picture shows the low centered in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The "feeder bands" have wreaked havoc on parts of Florida. Flooding has been isolated in east-central parts of the Sunshine State. Some of you may know of the Daytona Beach International Speedway. That facility has be inendated with rain, excessive rain that is, and the precipitation has gone so far as to overflow the drainage pools and impact the tunnel of Turn One of the speedway. The event, so far, has been marked as the most flooding of any system in certain areas and the fourth most signficiant (quantitatively with rain totals) of any weather system in Florida's history since records were started. The governor, Charlie Christ, has declared a state of emergency for eleven Florida counties including Brevard, Clay, Duval, Flagler, Lake, Nassau, Orange, Putnam, Seminole, St. Johns, and Volusia. The governor is currently in south Florida for a Memorial Day party and has not yet had a chance to survey completely the flood ravaged areas. 

For more information, including radar maps and weather conditions for our area and locations around the Southeast and around the country, log on to our website at http://www.myskidawayisland.com/weather/ . 

Severe Weather Outbreak: Feb. 18 - 19, 2009

We saw quite a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the general area early this morning and late last night. If you were like me, your weather radio was sounding almost unceasingly throughout the wee morning hours of today (February 19). There were a total of seven severe thunderstorm warnings and approximately five marine weather warnings and advisories for the local area.

Late Wednesday evening, the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center issued a severe thunderstorm watch for their (Charleston, SC weather service office) entire county warning area. Later that night, rather, late Thursday morning, the SPC revised that initial severe thunderstorm watch and disseminated a tornado watch for all counties in Charleston weather office's county warning area Georgia counties. We saw a fair amount of rainfall totaling just under one half inch on Skidaway Island from our weather station. There is more weather information, including real-time radar imagery and forecast data, located on our weather website at http://www.myskidawayisland.com/weather/ .

Until next time.

Icing Problems Could Have Caused Airplane Crash

I am sure most of you are aware of the aircraft that crashed in upstate New York on Thursday night (around 10:30 pm). The National Transportation Safety Board is now investigating the crash and its cause(s). Most experts believe that the crash's cause was ice, particularly, the failure of the aircraft's deicing mechanisms. Since the aircraft was propeller-driven and unlike many jets in use today, it had deicing boots. These boots expand and contract to decrease the amount of ice buildup on an aircraft's wings and other parts of the aircraft. The plane crashed approximately six miles from the Buffalo Airport where light snow and mist were being reported. These conditions are ideal for icing on an aircraft.

The Manassas, VA-based company, Colgan, is a subsidiary of Pinnacle Airlines. They owned the aircraft that crashed into a home in suburban Buffalo. Experts say that, because the aircraft pitched down very violently, ice was mostly likely a large cause of the aircraft's crash. This is the first fatal crash of a commercial jetliner in nearly two and a half years. While the Federal Aviation Administration has not commented, and the NTSB has not ruled out any potential causes, many believe that icing could inhibit air from properly flowing over the wings, causing catastrophic failure of the aircraft's aerodynamic lift mechanisms--the wings.

The website, LiveATC.net, has released the final minutes of air traffic control recording from the Buffalo Niagara International Airport tower. That audio is located here. Source: LiveATC.net

(c) 2009 Skidaway Island Weather Center. All rights reserved. Duplication or distribution is strictly prohibited without written permission from the author.

Severe Weather Awareness Week

Every year, Georgians face some of the most deadly weather in the world. We encounter it all: tornadoes, lightning, flooding, and the occasional tropical cyclone. These phenomena are among some of the reasons why the National Weather Service along with the Office of the Governor of the State of Georgia have created the Severe Weather Awareness Week. Here is a press release from the Chatham County Emergency Management. We encourage everyone who participates in outdoor activities during the summer months to have a plan of action should inclement weather develop.

Preparing for the Unexpected Now Can Save You Later

Savannah, GA – February 2, 2009, 2:30 PM

The Chatham Emergency Management Agency (EMA) supports the National Weather Service in observing February 1-7, as Severe Weather Awareness Week in Georgia . Encouraging Georgians to practice emergency preparedness and response procedures for all types of severe weather events that occur in the state is the goal of the week-long observance with a daily focus on these topics:

February 1 Sunday Family Preparedness Day
February 2 Monday NOAA Weather Radio
February 3 Tuesday Thunderstorm Safety
February 4 Wednesday Tornado Safety (Statewide Drill)
February 5 Thursday Lightning Safety
February 6 Friday Flooding (Alternate Drill Day)
February 7 Saturday Volunteers/Weather Spotters

"Severe Weather Awareness Week is the perfect time for every family in Chatham County to plan and rehearse what they should do during the first 72-hours of any severe weather-related event or disaster," stated CEMA Director Clayton Scott.

To help people get started, the Georgia Emergency Management Agency's Ready Georgia - a statewide emergency preparedness campaign - offers the necessary tools that residents need to make an emergency supply kit, develop a communications plan and stay informed about potential threats. Ready Georgia 's interactive Web site, www.ready.ga.gov, provides detailed information on Georgia-specific emergency preparedness and allows users to create a personal profile and receive a customized checklist and a family communications plan.

During winter storms, floods, tornadoes or hurricanes, it may take emergency workers 72-hours or more to reach certain areas in order to open roadways and restore utilities. The benefit of being self-sufficient for 72-hours, or longer, is that you and your family can survive circumstances that might otherwise be tragic, if you were not prepared. "With a little time and effort, families can prepare for severe weather hazards affecting our area. Developing a family disaster plan is the first step," said Director Scott.

Where will you and other family members be when severe weather or disaster strikes? Whether you are at work, at school, in the car or out-of-town, how will you find or contact each other? How will you know if your children are safe?

Severe weather or a disaster may force an evacuation of your neighborhood or confine you to your home. What will you do if your basic utilities - water, gas, electricity, or telephones -- are cut off? These are the types of questions your family disaster plan must address in order to help protect your family.

Follow these basic steps to develop a family disaster plan . . . .

Gather information about hazards
In addition to your local emergency management agency (CEMA), you may contact the nearest National Weather Service office, Ready Georgia or the American Red Cross. Find out what type of disasters could occur and how you should respond. Learn the community's warning signals and evacuation plans.

Meet with your family to create a plan
Discuss the information you have gathered. Pick two places to meet: a spot right outside your home for an emergency, such as fire, and a place away from your neighborhood in case you cannot return home. Choose an out-of-state friend as your "family check-in contact" for everyone to call if the family gets separated. Discuss what you would do if advised to evacuate.

Implement your plan
1. Post emergency telephone numbers by phones.

2. Install safety features in your house, such as a NOAA Weather Radio, smoke detectors and fire extinguishers.

3. Inspect your home for potential hazards: such as items that can move, fall, break or catch fire; and, correct them.

4. Have family members learn basic safety measures: such as CPR and first-aid; how to use a fire extinguisher; and, how and when to turn off water, gas and electricity in your home.

5. Teach children how and when to call 9-1-1 or your local Emergency Medical Services number.

6. Keep enough supplies in your home to meet your family's needs for at least three days.

7. Assemble an emergency preparedness kit with items you may need in case of an evacuation. Store these supplies in sturdy, easy-to-carry containers, such as backpacks or duffel bags. Keep important family documents in a waterproof container. Keep a smaller disaster supplies kit in the trunk of your car. A disaster supplies kit should include a three-day supply of water (one gallon per person per day) and food which will not spoil; one change of clothing and footwear per person; one blanket or sleeping bag per person; a first-aid kit (including prescription medicines); emergency tools (including a battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio and a portable radio, flashlight, and plenty of extra batteries); an extra set of car keys and cash; and, special items for infant, elderly, or disabled family members.

Practice and maintain your plan
Ask questions to make sure your family remembers meeting places, phone numbers, and safety rules. Conduct drills. Test your weather radio and smoke detectors monthly and change the batteries at least once a year. Test and recharge your fire extinguishers according to the manufacturer's instructions. Replace stored water and food every six months.

For more information, contact CEMA at (912) 201-4500 or visit these Web sites: www.ChathamEmergency.org, www.gema.ga.gov, www.ready.ga.gov, www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/, or www.ready.ga.gov.

About Ready Georgia
Ready Georgia is a statewide campaign designed to educate and empower Georgians to prepare for and respond to natural disasters, pandemic outbreaks, potential terrorist attacks and other large-scale emergencies. The campaign is a project of the Georgia Emergency Management Agency (GEMA) and provides a local dimension to Ready America, a broader national campaign. Ready Georgia aims to prepare citizens for maintaining self-sufficiency for at least 72 hours following an emergency, and uses an interactive Web site, online community toolkit, television and radio advertising and public awareness media messaging to reach its audiences.

"Mr. Tornado" -- Theodore Fujita

Since it has been just over ten years since Dr. Fujita's death, I wrote a quick summary of his life and just a few of his accomplishments. Even though, truth be told, I have not done him justice.

Although he died in 1998, Dr. Tetsuya Theodore Fujita continues to be one of the most instrumental meteorology figures. He advanced the science of atmospheric science and severe thunderstorms like no other during his time. His legacy still continues today because of his endless devotion to studying and explaning severe weather phenomena. You may recognize the name Fujita; it is the common name for the tornado intensity scale--the Fujita Scale. Recently retired and replaced with the Enhanced Fujita Scale, the Fujita Scale was the first tornado rating scale based on damage severity alone. Mr. Tornado, as he was called, realized that there was a distinct corrolation between damage and tornadic wind speed.

Dr. Theodore Fujita was born in Japan on October 23, 1920 in the small rural town of Kitakyusu. After earning several degrees, including a Doctoral of Science from Tokyo University, Horace Byers encouraged him to come to the University of Chicago to futher his studies and teach meteorology.

Until the late 1970s when Dr. Fujita made extraordinary discoveries in the field of meteorology, tornadic thunderstorms were thought to have one main tornado that caused all of the damage associated with its path. The different wind damage patterns puzzled meteorologists and the general public. After observing and studying thousands of data and images, Dr. Fujita theorized that there were other "mini" tornadoes or vortices--more specifically called multiple vortex tornadoes-- that coexisted in particularly severe thunderstorms. In addition, he believed that thunderstorms had different types of wind shear within them--some surface based phenomenon included downbursts and tornadoes. He opined in several scientific journals that downbursts could be grouped into two distinct categories: either macrobursts or microbursts. The two prefixes simply indicate the magnitude of the damage from the air that falls. If the damage swath is less than 2.5 miles in diameter it is a microburst, if more it is a macroburst. All downbursts are caused by rapidly descending columns of air because of dry layers within a thunderstorm. These columns hit the surface of the Earth and spread rapidly outward. The damage caused by these collapses within cumulonimbus clouds had a distinct and obvious difference with the damage caused by tornadoes. These theories by Dr. Fujita were later proven by other scientists.

Dr. Fujita truly was an old-school scientist. Born in 1920, he was not educated in an age with supercomputers and computer modeling techniques. When the advent of computers did materialize, he believed that the computers simply "didn't understand these [meteorology] things" ("Tornado researcher Ted Fujita died in 1998," 2005).

During his childhood, he was in Japan amidst the growing tensions between the United States and Japan resulting in World War Two. Ironically, Fujita was saved by Mother Nature herself when the weather was overcast, which proved unfavorable for an atomic bomb drop at the Kokura Terminal which was about three miles from where Fujita worked. After the atomic bomb drops on Nagasaki and Hiroshima, the Japanese government sent Fujita to study the damage that was inflicted on those areas (Marshall, 1998). It is amazing that the weather saved Dr. Theodore Fujita's life, the very living person that would make unprecedented meteorological discoveries.

I thank him for his work in the atmospheric and meteorological fields. I wish that I would have had the opportunity to meet such an intelligent man and discuss his theories. It has been ten years since his death yet his discoveries are still the foundation of what we know today about mesoscale meteorology. We dedicate this entry to him and his hard work.

(To request references, please contact us.)

We value your opinion; Take our quick survey.

Hello there. We value your input and opinion regarding our weather website and this blog. In order to ensure that we provide the most useful information for our visitors, we have created a short, dynamic survey that asks a series of questions about our site. We encourage everyone to submit their thoughts through this survey. If enough contribute their opinion, we can continue to provide some of the best weather information for Skidaway Island.

Here is the link to the survey: http://www.myskidawayisland.com/survey/survey.php?s_id=1

Thank you all in advance.

Come on Down and see the National Weather Service!

Representatives from our National Weather Service forecast office will be in Savannah this weekend. They will have a booth exhibit at the Charleston Boat Show. The meteorologists there will answer questions and accept input and comments regarding their new National Digital Forecast Database on their website at weather.gov . Their exhibit will be located outside between the parking lot E and the building. Here's the Public Information Statement released earlier today by the National Weather Service:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
851 AM EST THU JAN 22 2009

...YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT THE CHARLESTON BOAT SHOW...

THIS FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...JANUARY 23...24 AND 25...YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON WILL BE PARTICIPATING AT
THE BOAT SHOW AT THE NORTH CHARLESTON CONVENTION CENTER.

UNLIKE RECENT YEARS WHEN WE WERE LOCATED INSIDE...THIS YEAR WE
WILL BE OUTSIDE NEAR THE MAIN ENTRANCE TO THE CONVENTION
CENTER...BETWEEN THE BUILDING AND PARKING LOT E.

WE WILL BE ON HAND TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS ABOUT WEATHER...AND
WILL PROVIDE VARIOUS FREE HANDOUTS...FOR BOTH ADULTS AND CHILDREN.

IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE SHOWCASING OUR WEBSITE...AS WELL AS
PROVIDING OTHER SOURCES OF WHERE YOU MAY OBTAIN MARINE WEATHER
INFORMATION...FORECASTS AND DATA.

WE WILL REVIEW AND PROMOTE OUR NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST
DATABASE...AND WE WILL BE HAPPY TO ACCEPT YOUR COMMENTS REGARDING
OUR FORECASTS...PRODUCTS AND SERVICES.

BE SURE TO STOP BY OUR DISPLAY TABLE NEAR THE MAIN ENTRANCE TO THE
CONVENTION CENTER. WE WILL BE THERE DURING THE FOLLOWING DATES AND
TIMES...

FRIDAY...JANUARY 23...FROM NOON TO 7 PM.

SATURDAY...JANUARY 24...FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM.

SUNDAY...JANUARY 25...FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM.

WE HOPE TO SEE YOU THERE.

$$

More Cold Air?

We had some fairly good snowfall amounts in the low country of South Carolina. Anywhere from a trace to a half an inch fell in some places. The local storm reports out of the area showed that most of the now stayed north of a line from Beaufort to Screven. The majority of our area stayed precipitation free as the drier air moved through. I was taken back at the lack of precipitation in the area. Normally, I would be unhappy with the dry air in place but sometimes this lack of moisture in the lower levels can lead to a higher possibility of snowfall because the surface ambient temperature is colder. There have been times when the surface temperature was 40°F and snow was falling--albeit not accumulating. That wasn't the case today however it was possible and I wondered why there weren't more television personalities discussing the chance of snow flurries for the local area. I can attest to the lack of snow in the Chatham County area. As for the outlying areas, I believe for all intensive purposes that they did see a few snow flurries early today.

The National Weather Service did a good job issuing winter weather advisories and special weather statements as needed for the wintry precipitation we experienced. The weather forecast offices in Columbia and Charleston received reports of a trace to a half an inch of snowfall, mainly on grassy surfaces in the midlands of SC. The main headaches were for those traveling through the airport-hub in Charlotte, North Carolina where they received between three and six inches of snowfall repectively.

At least for the next few days, we will have cold and brisk air filtering in from the north and northwest. That trend will dominate our weather for the good part of the week and, by this weekend, we should see some moderation in temperatures, quite possibly to spring-time levels. The precipitation forecast doesn't look good. We already have a rainfall defecit at the Savannah International Airport, continuing the trend from last year. The next chance of rain will come by the end of this weekend. It's important to note that we did finish the last year with a precipitation surplus which is definitely a good thing.

The inauguration weather was splendid for this time of year. I believe the chance of snow showers in the Washington vicinity was somewhere around five percent, roughly one in twenty. Either way, the beautiful weather did materialize and gave the spectators at the Lincoln Memorial and all of Washington a great sight without having to contend Mother Nature.

Stay Warm!

Snow in the Southeast?

It looks like there could be some snow later tonight and Tuesday morning for most of northern southeast locations including Charleston, Columbia, Charlotte, and Atlanta. Some locations could receive more than one inch of frozen precipitation which is significant. The latest models indicate that as a low pressure system moves toward the southeastern coast, colder air will move in behind the system. With the increase in moisture and freezing temperatures, there is a significant chance for wintry weather across much of north and central South Carolina, northern Georgia, and the western half of North Carolina. If you have any family members in those areas, they should see a fairly good amount of snow relatively speaking.

For our area, the majority of the moisture throughout the atmosphere will stay to the north of the Chatham County and Savannah Areas. The National Weather Service in Charleston has actually included a very slight chance of snow/rain on Tuesday afternoon, right now at approx. 20 percent. I tend to concur; however, I believe most of the frozen precipitation will stay out of the immediate coastal empire and low country of South Carolina. The NWS tends to believe this as well in their most recent Area Forecast Discussion. While the threat does exist for a winter mix in the low country of South Carolina and far inland areas of the coastal empire if moisture and cold air is abundant enough, I doubt it will actually happen. So the bottom line for tomorrow--don't get too excited, we're not going to see any snow.

Just a quick note--we'll be tracking the possible frozen precipitation on the Early Waning Doppler HD radar page. You can always get the latest weather information on our website at www.myskidawayisland.com/weather/ and from the National Weather Service at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/chs/.

Have a great MLK Jr. Day!

New Chatham County Sirens

The Chatham County Emergency Management Agency lobbied the county to purchase new tornado/emergency sirens for the local area. The sirens will complement the existing network of emergency alert units. These new sirens will be a great asset during the severe weather season, informing citizens to the potential for severe weather (e.g. tornado warnings). The below images show the old map and the newer map with pinks indicating the new coverage. Personnel from the Chatham Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) tell the media that the sirens will most likely be operational and working properly by March of 2009 if all goes as planned.

Old Sirens

New Sirens

Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler

Not only have we added more updated weather information and radar images, the Skidaway Island Weather Center has access to more than 140 Doppler radar sites around the United States. This capability, used in conjunction with all the different weather radar products, allows us to monitor, track, and interrogate precipitation (e.g. thunderstorms, showers, etc.) and large-scale synoptic weather features. During severe weather season, this computer application gives us the ability to streamline different data and upload that onto our web server for your accessibility. You are able to view weather radar, surface observation, and severe weather information. Below are several images showing the capabilities of the Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler. The first demonstrates a four-panel display of both base reflectivity and base velocity (with both having a different scan elevation tilt equaling four images). The second shows storm tracks using publicly-available SCIT data from the National Weather Service NEXRAD.

 

Generally Normal Temperatures; Several Cold Pockets

After examining various model output, I can come to one conclusion. There will be mild and seasonally-average temperatures with slightly lower precipitation. The short term MOS guidance suggests that cold--or at least marginally cold--temperatures will dominate the weather. By the end of this week (1/20), the 850mb temps show a drastic cool down. With 850mb temps of around ten below zero, I would reasonably conclude that temperatures will drop to below 30 degrees for coastal counties, and quite a few degrees below 25°F for inland areas of southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. So the bottom line: there will be a very cold "pocket" of air coming in by the end of the week. Temperatures will again moderate and once again drop below freezing by the mid-part of next week.

Weather Center Receives Much Needed Upgrade

I sincerely thank all those who have continued to use the weather conditions on our website at the Skidaway Island Weather Center. All the hard work put into coding and establishing this weather website and our parent website has been well worth the effort. I continue to ensure that the Skidaway Island Weather Center is one of the best weather information sites for hyper-local and live weather information. I value the input from visitors and users of our weather data.

After discontinuing updates to this weather blog, I have decided to revitalize this blog with weather information, especially severe weather in our area. I am committed to giving users of the Skidaway Island Weather website with reliable, and most importantly, accurate weather and meteorological information. I will continually update and inform visitors and readers of this blog on a regular basis about meteorological phenomena occurring in our area and those of other parts of the country.

As a part of an unfaltering commitment to users of our weather data, this past month, the Skidaway Island Weather Center's website, http://www.myskidawayisland.com/weather/, received a much needed design upgrade. In a continuing effort to uphold the standards of the weather website, we redesigned and renewed our weather data website. New data and information has been made available including live Doppler radar imagery, and updating live weather web cams. In addition, our parent website which offers information related to Skidaway Island located at http://www.myskidawayisland.com/ has received a "makeover". Both websites include more updated web design rendering methodology in accordance with current web standards.

We have also written information regarding lightning and safety. That is also located at http://www.myskidawayisland.com/lightning/.

Patrick Prokop, from WTOC-DT/TV, has also used our weather data on on-air broadcasts.

Until the next update,