The past two days have been especially pleasant because we have experienced some incredibly cold temperatures over the past two weeks. Temperatures in the 60s--and possibly some 70s--will prevail more or less during the next week. The next storm system is poised to invade the area by Thursday afternoon and evening, bringing quite a bit of rain (possibly over 1" in some places).
To that end, the Storm Prediction Center has said that the possibility for severe weather exists on Thursday and then later in the weekend as yet another rain event enters the region. Most of the models that I have seen keep the first first system stronger and more-potent and downplay the storm system this weekend and early next week.
Enjoy this warm weather. Some meteorologists' blogs I have read elude to another cold spell during early February but I am a bit skeptical. The GFS long-range keeps the zonal flow in place, absent the relatively few disturbances that do traverse the country.
Monday, January 18, 2010
Friday, January 8, 2010
No Snow this Morning & Past Week's Observations
The snow/frozen precipitation did not materialize this morning as the colder air moving behind the cold front associated with the low pressure system lagged behind. Had those surface temperatures progressed any further southeast, the potential would have existed for wintry precipitation. The 850mb temperatures on the GFS model remained just behind the main bulk of the moisture and this lack of freezing air caused the lack of frozen precipitation. Added to that, surface temperatures this morning around 6AM ET were around 42°F--far too warm for snow on the surface. The relative humidity remained high as well.
Temperature Observations from Monday 1/4/10 until Friday 1/8/10
From the Skidaway Island Weather Center
Monday - Low: 26.0°F High: 59.3°F
Tuesday - Low: 26.2°F High: 45.0°F
Wednesday - Low: 28.0°F High: 59.3°F
Thursday - Low: 29.0°F High: 48.0°F
Friday - Low: 32.0°F High: 47.0°F
Stay warm because it will certainly be cold this weekend! Temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s. It begins to warm up, however, by the middle to end of next week (...even though that warm up will not be significant).
Temperature Observations from Monday 1/4/10 until Friday 1/8/10
From the Skidaway Island Weather Center
Monday - Low: 26.0°F High: 59.3°F
Tuesday - Low: 26.2°F High: 45.0°F
Wednesday - Low: 28.0°F High: 59.3°F
Thursday - Low: 29.0°F High: 48.0°F
Friday - Low: 32.0°F High: 47.0°F
Stay warm because it will certainly be cold this weekend! Temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s. It begins to warm up, however, by the middle to end of next week (...even though that warm up will not be significant).
Sunday, January 3, 2010
Possible Wintry Precipitation by Week's End
The cold weather that the area has experienced over the past day or so will continue throughout the area, as more arctic air makes its way into the southeastern United States. It's so cold in fact that central Florida and interior portions of southern Florida are preparing for an incredibly intense cold spell later this week. During Thursday and Friday morning, temperatures in the lower 30s(F), and possibly upper 20s(F) in some places, will be a commonplace.
The operational weather models continue to indicate a prolonged event of unseasonably cold temperatures during the next week. Even on the islands of southeast Georgia, where sub-freezing temperatures are not traditionally observed, widespread temperature readings in the 20s could be experienced. In fact, some models, namely the GFS, are showing surface temperatures below 20°F on Skidaway Island. The next low pressure system will move through the area during the same time frame, increasing surface temperatures slightly by the end of the week--Thursday and Friday. This system could result in an increase in overall moisture, and if the colder air is able to stay uniformly through the atmosphere before the bulk of the precipitation moves offshore, some type of frozen precipitation could occur. And that temperature profile of the atmosphere will ultimately determine what--if any--precipitation will result. It's unlikely that we'll see any precipitation in Coastal Empire though as model runs of the GFS, and more so of the DGEX have backed off the idea of wintry precipitation.
We'll see what happens. In the meantime, stay warm!
The operational weather models continue to indicate a prolonged event of unseasonably cold temperatures during the next week. Even on the islands of southeast Georgia, where sub-freezing temperatures are not traditionally observed, widespread temperature readings in the 20s could be experienced. In fact, some models, namely the GFS, are showing surface temperatures below 20°F on Skidaway Island. The next low pressure system will move through the area during the same time frame, increasing surface temperatures slightly by the end of the week--Thursday and Friday. This system could result in an increase in overall moisture, and if the colder air is able to stay uniformly through the atmosphere before the bulk of the precipitation moves offshore, some type of frozen precipitation could occur. And that temperature profile of the atmosphere will ultimately determine what--if any--precipitation will result. It's unlikely that we'll see any precipitation in Coastal Empire though as model runs of the GFS, and more so of the DGEX have backed off the idea of wintry precipitation.
We'll see what happens. In the meantime, stay warm!
Friday, January 1, 2010
Extreme Cold during the Next Week
I just wanted to talk a bit about the cold temperatures--bitterly cold temperatures in some parts of the country--that will affect the Savannah area later this week.
The next ten days will be brutally frigid for parts of the Plains states. Take a look at this image, depicting the surface temperatures of the GFS model for the 12Z model run. Note the sprawling area of -20°F and lower temperatures in parts of the Red River valley of Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. These areas will certainly experience the brunt of the cold weather as the ensuing days approach. The image below shows projected temperatures at 12Z Jan. 8 or 7AM ET and 6AM CT. I would not be surprised to see locations in that area stay below 0°F for the entirety of the 8th.
What's striking is the amount of winter weather we have experienced thus far into the winter season. The cold air has certainly been in place, and the winter storms we have experienced have all been severe, such as the December 18 - 20 blizzard for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the snow storm affecting parts of Maine at the present. And make no mistake, this is not the end of the season, forecasters and meteorologists are continuing to predict a cold and active winter for most of the United States, particularly the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and the Plains. But the indirect effects, like achingly frigid temperatures for regions not particularly prone to these conditions, could be what makes the season known over the coming years.
For the Savannah area, the coldest temperatures should be felt on Tuesday morning but this will not be the end of the cold pattern. Unlike what would usually be expected, the frigid, polar air mass will remain in place for the next week at least as more icy cold streams into the Deep South. On Tuesday, temperature could drop to 30°F at the airport and slightly warmer on the coast. But later on in the week, near the 8th as the GFS model run depicts above, the entire Savannah River Valley as well as the islands of southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina could see sub-freezing temperatures--very unusual.
Happy New Year! Be sure to stay warm as the next week will be a cold one.
The next ten days will be brutally frigid for parts of the Plains states. Take a look at this image, depicting the surface temperatures of the GFS model for the 12Z model run. Note the sprawling area of -20°F and lower temperatures in parts of the Red River valley of Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. These areas will certainly experience the brunt of the cold weather as the ensuing days approach. The image below shows projected temperatures at 12Z Jan. 8 or 7AM ET and 6AM CT. I would not be surprised to see locations in that area stay below 0°F for the entirety of the 8th.
What's striking is the amount of winter weather we have experienced thus far into the winter season. The cold air has certainly been in place, and the winter storms we have experienced have all been severe, such as the December 18 - 20 blizzard for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the snow storm affecting parts of Maine at the present. And make no mistake, this is not the end of the season, forecasters and meteorologists are continuing to predict a cold and active winter for most of the United States, particularly the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and the Plains. But the indirect effects, like achingly frigid temperatures for regions not particularly prone to these conditions, could be what makes the season known over the coming years.For the Savannah area, the coldest temperatures should be felt on Tuesday morning but this will not be the end of the cold pattern. Unlike what would usually be expected, the frigid, polar air mass will remain in place for the next week at least as more icy cold streams into the Deep South. On Tuesday, temperature could drop to 30°F at the airport and slightly warmer on the coast. But later on in the week, near the 8th as the GFS model run depicts above, the entire Savannah River Valley as well as the islands of southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina could see sub-freezing temperatures--very unusual.
Happy New Year! Be sure to stay warm as the next week will be a cold one.
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
Updated New Year's Forecast
The two major models continue to differ in the short-term forecast guidance. The NAM forecast model suggests a drier frontal passage while the GFS shows more moisture and greater precipitation. The NAM seems to be too dry and the GFS looks more likely but because of the disparity between the two solutions I am guessing we will experience a hybrid of them.
A slight risk of rain will exist today (12/30) but the greater chance will exist tomorrow as the bulk of the low-level moisture enters the area. Throughout the day on Thursday, there will be a chance of rain showers and as the day progresses, chances of precipitation will rise. By 10PM (12/31), the front will enter eastern Georgia and the last of the precipitation will exist the coast by early Friday morning.
Temperatures around the area will reach approximately 58°F on Thursday. Friday morning, the low will drop to about 52°F on the islands and 49°F inland. During the day Friday, 59°F will be the high temperature and winds will pick up to around 15 - 20mph from the West.
Expect cold temperatures, even on the islands, this weekend and early next week with lows possibly creeping down to 25°F on Tuesday morning.
Happy New Year!
A slight risk of rain will exist today (12/30) but the greater chance will exist tomorrow as the bulk of the low-level moisture enters the area. Throughout the day on Thursday, there will be a chance of rain showers and as the day progresses, chances of precipitation will rise. By 10PM (12/31), the front will enter eastern Georgia and the last of the precipitation will exist the coast by early Friday morning.
Temperatures around the area will reach approximately 58°F on Thursday. Friday morning, the low will drop to about 52°F on the islands and 49°F inland. During the day Friday, 59°F will be the high temperature and winds will pick up to around 15 - 20mph from the West.
Expect cold temperatures, even on the islands, this weekend and early next week with lows possibly creeping down to 25°F on Tuesday morning.
Happy New Year!
Monday, December 28, 2009
Is it going to rain for the New Year's Festivities?
Rain could move into the area by New Year's Eve and stay in the area overnight into the first day of the new year however I believe the precipitation will be isolated. It is unlikely that we will see a steady rain. At most, we should see decent weather for Thursday, with sporadic rain showers moving into the area by 9PM and that chance of on-and-off rain will continue through the night. The precipitation chances should shrink to close to zero by 12PM on Friday as colder, much colder air in fact, moves into the area. The New Year's weekend looks to become one of the coldest thus far.
New Year's Forecasts
BOTTOM LINE - Temperatures will be cool but not cold on New Year's Eve and Day; precipitation chances will be greatest Thursday (12/31) night and early Friday (1/1/10) morning. However any rain that develops will likely be light dropping little accumulating rain. Probability of Precipitation - 50% inland; 35% along coast.
First few days of the New Year - Very cold and temperatures in Savannah could drop to sub-freezing temperatures for several hours in the mornings (mainly 1/2 - 1/5); along the coast, temperatures could very well drop below 32°F which is highly unusual.
Thurs., December 31, 2009 - High around 54°F and Low approaching 45°F (thought that may occur just after midnight and rise steadily as the morning progresses). Precipitation develops after 6AM ET and chances continue to increase as day progresses. Can't rule out showers moving inland from ocean, as moisture is pulled into frontal zone. Any precipitation will bring little accumulation.
Fri., January 1, 2010 - High reaching around 53°F (but again, this will probably be reached in the early morning) and lows around 42°F (likely reached during last evening hours). Rain chances will diminish drastically by 9AM.
The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows little precipitation accumulation for Wednesday and Thursday (from 12/30 7PM ET to 12/31 7PM ET, respectively) and keeps that same pattern of relatively small amounts of precipitation for the area, including Skidaway Island. The first image below is the forecast and note how the high amounts of precipitation have not fallen over the Savannah area, they remain to the west. The same holds true for the second images, which shows precipitation accumulation from 12Z 12/31/09 until 12Z 1/2/10 of around a tenth of an inch.
Two major models, the GFS (18Z) and the NAM (0Z 12/29), both paint different pictures for this upcoming week. The GFS continues to keep moisture in the area much more so by Thursday night, while temperatures throughout the first part of the week remain cool and warm gradually as rain chances increase. The NAM keeps the area drier and cooler, giving the Savannah area a relatively calm weather day on Thursday night and Friday morning.
As for the blizzard that could impact parts of the Northeast around the first of January, the models are essentially guessing haphazardly how strong the storm will be in terms of pressure, whether the storm will have a more easterly or westerly component, and if the precipitation line will be far enough south to impact the ball drop in Times Square. I believe the chances are slim for snow or frozen precipitation on New Year's Eve and the early morning hours of New Year's Day. Most all the models remain in agreement that some type of low pressure system will impact the East Coast and the rain/snow line continues to be located incredibly near the New York City metro area. So this certainly points to the fact that could potential be some mixed precipitation in the general area--but I would not put much faith in that possibility.
On another note, a Freeze Warning is in effect from this evening until 9AM ET tomorrow morning (12/29/09). This event will bring the coldest temperatures of the season to coastal locations, including Halfmoon Landing, Fort McAllister, and Darien.
Stay Warm!
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