Skidaway Island Weather Center Blog

Storm System Moves in Thursday, Another by Sunday

2010-01-18T22:15:00.003-05:00

The past two days have been especially pleasant because we have experienced some incredibly cold temperatures over the past two weeks. Temperatures in the 60s--and possibly some 70s--will prevail more or less during the next week. The next storm system is poised to invade the area by Thursday afternoon and evening, bringing quite a bit of rain (possibly over 1" in some places).

To that end, the Storm Prediction Center has said that the possibility for severe weather exists on Thursday and then later in the weekend as yet another rain event enters the region. Most of the models that I have seen keep the first first system stronger and more-potent and downplay the storm system this weekend and early next week.

Enjoy this warm weather. Some meteorologists' blogs I have read elude to another cold spell during early February but I am a bit skeptical. The GFS long-range keeps the zonal flow in place, absent the relatively few disturbances that do traverse the country.

No Snow this Morning & Past Week's Observations

2010-01-08T16:25:00.005-05:00

The snow/frozen precipitation did not materialize this morning as the colder air moving behind the cold front associated with the low pressure system lagged behind. Had those surface temperatures progressed any further southeast, the potential would have existed for wintry precipitation. The 850mb temperatures on the GFS model remained just behind the main bulk of the moisture and this lack of freezing air caused the lack of frozen precipitation. Added to that, surface temperatures this morning around 6AM ET were around 42°F--far too warm for snow on the surface. The relative humidity remained high as well.

Temperature Observations from Monday 1/4/10 until Friday 1/8/10
From the Skidaway Island Weather Center

Monday - Low: 26.0°F High: 59.3°F
Tuesday - Low: 26.2°F High: 45.0°F
Wednesday - Low: 28.0°F High: 59.3°F
Thursday - Low: 29.0°F High: 48.0°F
Friday - Low: 32.0°F High: 47.0°F

Stay warm because it will certainly be cold this weekend! Temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning will be in the 20s. It begins to warm up, however, by the middle to end of next week (...even though that warm up will not be significant).

Possible Wintry Precipitation by Week's End

2010-01-03T16:23:00.003-05:00

The cold weather that the area has experienced over the past day or so will continue throughout the area, as more arctic air makes its way into the southeastern United States. It's so cold in fact that central Florida and interior portions of southern Florida are preparing for an incredibly intense cold spell later this week. During Thursday and Friday morning, temperatures in the lower 30s(F), and possibly upper 20s(F) in some places, will be a commonplace.

The operational weather models continue to indicate a prolonged event of unseasonably cold temperatures during the next week. Even on the islands of southeast Georgia, where sub-freezing temperatures are not traditionally observed, widespread temperature readings in the 20s could be experienced. In fact, some models, namely the GFS, are showing surface temperatures below 20°F on Skidaway Island. The next low pressure system will move through the area during the same time frame, increasing surface temperatures slightly by the end of the week--Thursday and Friday. This system could result in an increase in overall moisture, and if the colder air is able to stay uniformly through the atmosphere before the bulk of the precipitation moves offshore, some type of frozen precipitation could occur. And that temperature profile of the atmosphere will ultimately determine what--if any--precipitation will result. It's unlikely that we'll see any precipitation in Coastal Empire though as model runs of the GFS, and more so of the DGEX have backed off the idea of wintry precipitation.

We'll see what happens. In the meantime, stay warm!

Extreme Cold during the Next Week

2010-01-01T15:47:00.005-05:00

I just wanted to talk a bit about the cold temperatures--bitterly cold temperatures in some parts of the country--that will affect the Savannah area later this week.

The next ten days will be brutally frigid for parts of the Plains states. Take a look at this image, depicting the surface temperatures of the GFS model for the 12Z model run. Note the sprawling area of -20°F and lower temperatures in parts of the Red River valley of Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. These areas will certainly experience the brunt of the cold weather as the ensuing days approach. The image below shows projected temperatures at 12Z Jan. 8 or 7AM ET and 6AM CT. I would not be surprised to see locations in that area stay below 0°F for the entirety of the 8th.

What's striking is the amount of winter weather we have experienced thus far into the winter season. The cold air has certainly been in place, and the winter storms we have experienced have all been severe, such as the December 18 - 20 blizzard for parts of the Mid-Atlantic states and the snow storm affecting parts of Maine at the present. And make no mistake, this is not the end of the season, forecasters and meteorologists are continuing to predict a cold and active winter for most of the United States, particularly the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and the Plains. But the indirect effects, like achingly frigid temperatures for regions not particularly prone to these conditions, could be what makes the season known over the coming years.

For the Savannah area, the coldest temperatures should be felt on Tuesday morning but this will not be the end of the cold pattern. Unlike what would usually be expected, the frigid, polar air mass will remain in place for the next week at least as more icy cold streams into the Deep South. On Tuesday, temperature could drop to 30°F at the airport and slightly warmer on the coast. But later on in the week, near the 8th as the GFS model run depicts above, the entire Savannah River Valley as well as the islands of southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina could see sub-freezing temperatures--very unusual.

Happy New Year! Be sure to stay warm as the next week will be a cold one.

Updated New Year's Forecast

2009-12-30T09:35:00.002-05:00

The two major models continue to differ in the short-term forecast guidance. The NAM forecast model suggests a drier frontal passage while the GFS shows more moisture and greater precipitation. The NAM seems to be too dry and the GFS looks more likely but because of the disparity between the two solutions I am guessing we will experience a hybrid of them.

A slight risk of rain will exist today (12/30) but the greater chance will exist tomorrow as the bulk of the low-level moisture enters the area. Throughout the day on Thursday, there will be a chance of rain showers and as the day progresses, chances of precipitation will rise. By 10PM (12/31), the front will enter eastern Georgia and the last of the precipitation will exist the coast by early Friday morning.

Temperatures around the area will reach approximately 58°F on Thursday. Friday morning, the low will drop to about 52°F on the islands and 49°F inland. During the day Friday, 59°F will be the high temperature and winds will pick up to around 15 - 20mph from the West.

Expect cold temperatures, even on the islands, this weekend and early next week with lows possibly creeping down to 25°F on Tuesday morning.

Happy New Year!

Is it going to rain for the New Year's Festivities?

2009-12-28T21:49:00.014-05:00

Rain could move into the area by New Year's Eve and stay in the area overnight into the first day of the new year however I believe the precipitation will be isolated. It is unlikely that we will see a steady rain. At most, we should see decent weather for Thursday, with sporadic rain showers moving into the area by 9PM and that chance of on-and-off rain will continue through the night. The precipitation chances should shrink to close to zero by 12PM on Friday as colder, much colder air in fact, moves into the area. The New Year's weekend looks to become one of the coldest thus far.

New Year's Forecasts

BOTTOM LINE - Temperatures will be cool but not cold on New Year's Eve and Day; precipitation chances will be greatest Thursday (12/31) night and early Friday (1/1/10) morning. However any rain that develops will likely be light dropping little accumulating rain. Probability of Precipitation - 50% inland; 35% along coast.

First few days of the New Year - Very cold and temperatures in Savannah could drop to sub-freezing temperatures for several hours in the mornings (mainly 1/2 - 1/5); along the coast, temperatures could very well drop below 32°F which is highly unusual.

Thurs., December 31, 2009 - High around 54°F and Low approaching 45°F (thought that may occur just after midnight and rise steadily as the morning progresses). Precipitation develops after 6AM ET and chances continue to increase as day progresses. Can't rule out showers moving inland from ocean, as moisture is pulled into frontal zone. Any precipitation will bring little accumulation.

Fri., January 1, 2010 - High reaching around 53°F (but again, this will probably be reached in the early morning) and lows around 42°F (likely reached during last evening hours). Rain chances will diminish drastically by 9AM.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows little precipitation accumulation for Wednesday and Thursday (from 12/30 7PM ET to 12/31 7PM ET, respectively) and keeps that same pattern of relatively small amounts of precipitation for the area, including Skidaway Island. The first image below is the forecast and note how the high amounts of precipitation have not fallen over the Savannah area, they remain to the west. The same holds true for the second images, which shows precipitation accumulation from 12Z 12/31/09 until 12Z 1/2/10 of around a tenth of an inch.

Two major models, the GFS (18Z) and the NAM (0Z 12/29), both paint different pictures for this upcoming week. The GFS continues to keep moisture in the area much more so by Thursday night, while temperatures throughout the first part of the week remain cool and warm gradually as rain chances increase. The NAM keeps the area drier and cooler, giving the Savannah area a relatively calm weather day on Thursday night and Friday morning.

As for the blizzard that could impact parts of the Northeast around the first of January, the models are essentially guessing haphazardly how strong the storm will be in terms of pressure, whether the storm will have a more easterly or westerly component, and if the precipitation line will be far enough south to impact the ball drop in Times Square. I believe the chances are slim for snow or frozen precipitation on New Year's Eve and the early morning hours of New Year's Day. Most all the models remain in agreement that some type of low pressure system will impact the East Coast and the rain/snow line continues to be located incredibly near the New York City metro area. So this certainly points to the fact that could potential be some mixed precipitation in the general area--but I would not put much faith in that possibility.

On another note, a Freeze Warning is in effect from this evening until 9AM ET tomorrow morning (12/29/09). This event will bring the coldest temperatures of the season to coastal locations, including Halfmoon Landing, Fort McAllister, and Darien.

Stay Warm!

Ways to Communicate with the Skidaway Island Weather Center

2009-12-28T14:12:00.004-05:00

Take a quick look at the Social Media websites the Skidaway Island Weather Center is utilizing to communicate with others in our community.

New Year's Day Storm for the Northeast

2009-12-26T16:31:00.007-05:00

Times Square for the New Year's celebration could be snowy and cold, according to current trends and forecasting data. It's too early to begin stating in a definite way that it will snow in New York's Times Square when the ball drops to bring in the new year; but most of the forecast models and the weather parameters have begun to elude to low pressure development and propagation up the East Coast.

The GFS forecast model showed a massive low pressure system moving into the northeast on the 6Z run but that later disappeared on the subsequent ones. The North Atlantic Oscillation values have turned extremely negative, and typically when you see this, there is a higher than normal likelihood of weather system development along or just east of the Continental United States. At one point on the 6Z run, the model showed heavy frozen precipitation in the Southeast, even in eastern Georgia and South Carolina. That's very unlikely, but it points to the fact that the GFS has picked up on something that could develop for the new year.

The DGEX model, on the other hand, forecasts a slightly weaker system but that it will move off the coast faster and will not affect as much of the mainland as the GFS model. The NAM model, while only showing the next 84 hours, shows the low pressure system developing in the Gulf of Mexico that could move through the Southeast and then move off the coast. At that point, the low would either turn toward the United States or move off the coast as a weaker system.

What's even more interesting--there's another storm that the GFS is showing the long-range that could be even stronger and more potent that this one.

It's a difficult situation to forecast. We'll keep you updated. I hope everyone had a wonder Christmas and a happy holiday.

Christmas Day Rain & New Year's Forecast

2009-12-24T14:35:00.008-05:00

Hi everyone. Unfortunately, it looks like Savannah, the Skidaway Island area, and most of southeastern Georgia will see rain on Christmas Day. However, temperatures in the area will be slightly above seasonal levels, given the warm air flowing from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a cold front that will impact us tomorrow.

This chance of rain has been caused by a relatively strong low pressure system centered near Missouri, propagating northeastward and the resulting cold front moving through the southeastern United States. The front has already spawned several tornadoes in Eastern Texas and parts of Louisiana. It does though look as if we will not have to endure the brunt of the severe weather in our area, even though the Storm Prediction Center has put our area under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (Christmas Day). http://2.ly/dym

Severe weather parameters for the area are marginal and I feel that the potential for tornadoes, the main threat throughout today with the front, will be rather limited. High winds from thunderstorms will be the greatest threat in the area. But again, the potential threat for severe weather will remain low.

Looking at the long-range models, I have seen that the GFS forecast model has begun to show a massive blizzard impacting the northeast states starting New Year's Eve and continuing through New Year's Day. This is extremely unlikely, as the model--at the same time as the blizzard in the Northeast--shows flurries in eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Interestingly enough though, I was reading an intriguing article written by Joe Bastardi, a senior meteorologist at Accuweather, who believes that the United States could see the "coldest 10-day opening to January" in nearly twenty-five years. I found this particularly interesting given the level of cold air the same model showing the massive blizzard in the Northeast shows in the long-range.

Whatever the case, cold air will be widespread in the United States during the new year. It is less likely though that this cold air will be in our area. More than likely, we will see seasonable or slightly cooler temperatures in January. As would be expected, the areas that will be most affected by this cold air will be the Plains states, who are at the present experiencing near-blizzard conditions.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Enjoy the new year!

Strong Thunderstorms Expected | Our Twitter Page

2009-06-03T18:30:00.002-04:00

Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day on Thursday and Friday. Some of the thunderstorms could be severe with strong thunderstorms likely impacting a majority of the area around Skidaway Island. I expect the majority of lightning-producing thunderstorms will develop after 2pm in the afternoon in the far southwestern areas of southeastern Georgia. Fairly benign thunderstorms (if you could use that term) will develop mainly in the afternoon and progress toward the north and north-east.

We also have a twitter feed that will have up-to-the-second severe weather updates should that weather develop. Our twitter ID is 'skidawayweather' and our page is located at http://www.twitter.com/skidawayweather/.

Why have we received so much rain?

2009-05-22T18:41:00.002-04:00

Have any of you wondered why it has been so dreary this last few days? Chances are: you have. The continuing presence of a low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico has led to an increase it overall areal coverage of precipitation in our area. And unlike most convection/precipitation that moves into our area, it does so by moving from the west toward the east (roughly). Typically, these systems that affect us do not have the same effect as a stationary--or partially stationary--low pressure that has brought rain the past five days.

The Savannah International Airport reports that today we have seen 1.61" so far. That's not incredible; however, combined with other totals in that range for the past few days, that adds icing on the cake--a cake that already has four inches in the past week.

I am sure most of you have seen the low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico and pondered the idea of a tropical low pressure system. Though the prospect did look promising earlier this week, that did not materialize. In fact, the subtropical low pressure was consumed by a mid- and upper-level low pressure and forecasters at the National Hurricane Center lost hope entirely (or lost hope in the lightest sense as most of the meteorologists and "hurricane specialists" did not want to spend hours tracking a potentially deadly and mass hysteria-creating cyclone that would accompany that task). The above picture shows the low centered in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

The "feeder bands" have wreaked havoc on parts of Florida. Flooding has been isolated in east-central parts of the Sunshine State. Some of you may know of the Daytona Beach International Speedway. That facility has be inendated with rain, excessive rain that is, and the precipitation has gone so far as to overflow the drainage pools and impact the tunnel of Turn One of the speedway. The event, so far, has been marked as the most flooding of any system in certain areas and the fourth most signficiant (quantitatively with rain totals) of any weather system in Florida's history since records were started. The governor, Charlie Christ, has declared a state of emergency for eleven Florida counties including Brevard, Clay, Duval, Flagler, Lake, Nassau, Orange, Putnam, Seminole, St. Johns, and Volusia. The governor is currently in south Florida for a Memorial Day party and has not yet had a chance to survey completely the flood ravaged areas.

For more information, including radar maps and weather conditions for our area and locations around the Southeast and around the country, log on to our website at http://www.myskidawayisland.com/weather/ .

Severe Weather Outbreak: Feb. 18 - 19, 2009

2009-02-19T22:06:00.002-05:00

We saw quite a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the general area early this morning and late last night. If you were like me, your weather radio was sounding almost unceasingly throughout the wee morning hours of today (February 19). There were a total of seven severe thunderstorm warnings and approximately five marine weather warnings and advisories for the local area.

Late Wednesday evening, the National Weather Service and the Storm Prediction Center issued a severe thunderstorm watch for their (Charleston, SC weather service office) entire county warning area. Later that night, rather, late Thursday morning, the SPC revised that initial severe thunderstorm watch and disseminated a tornado watch for all counties in Charleston weather office's county warning area Georgia counties. We saw a fair amount of rainfall totaling just under one half inch on Skidaway Island from our weather station. There is more weather information, including real-time radar imagery and forecast data, located on our weather website at http://www.myskidawayisland.com/weather/ .

Until next time.

Icing Problems Could Have Caused Airplane Crash

2009-02-14T13:03:00.010-05:00

I am sure most of you are aware of the aircraft that crashed in upstate New York on Thursday night (around 10:30 pm). The National Transportation Safety Board is now investigating the crash and its cause(s). Most experts believe that the crash's cause was ice, particularly, the failure of the aircraft's deicing mechanisms. Since the aircraft was propeller-driven and unlike many jets in use today, it had deicing boots. These boots expand and contract to decrease the amount of ice buildup on an aircraft's wings and other parts of the aircraft. The plane crashed approximately six miles from the Buffalo Airport where light snow and mist were being reported. These conditions are ideal for icing on an aircraft.

The Manassas, VA-based company, Colgan, is a subsidiary of Pinnacle Airlines. They owned the aircraft that crashed into a home in suburban Buffalo. Experts say that, because the aircraft pitched down very violently, ice was mostly likely a large cause of the aircraft's crash. This is the first fatal crash of a commercial jetliner in nearly two and a half years. While the Federal Aviation Administration has not commented, and the NTSB has not ruled out any potential causes, many believe that icing could inhibit air from properly flowing over the wings, causing catastrophic failure of the aircraft's aerodynamic lift mechanisms--the wings.

The website, LiveATC.net, has released the final minutes of air traffic control recording from the Buffalo Niagara International Airport tower. That audio is located here. Source: LiveATC.net

(c) 2009 Skidaway Island Weather Center. All rights reserved. Duplication or distribution is strictly prohibited without written permission from the author.

Severe Weather Awareness Week

2009-02-06T20:19:00.004-05:00

Every year, Georgians face some of the most deadly weather in the world. We encounter it all: tornadoes, lightning, flooding, and the occasional tropical cyclone. These phenomena are among some of the reasons why the National Weather Service along with the Office of the Governor of the State of Georgia have created the Severe Weather Awareness Week. Here is a press release from the Chatham County Emergency Management. We encourage everyone who participates in outdoor activities during the summer months to have a plan of action should inclement weather develop.

Preparing for the Unexpected Now Can Save You Later

Savannah, GA – February 2, 2009, 2:30 PM

The Chatham Emergency Management Agency (EMA) supports the National Weather Service in observing February 1-7, as Severe Weather Awareness Week in Georgia . Encouraging Georgians to practice emergency preparedness and response procedures for all types of severe weather events that occur in the state is the goal of the week-long observance with a daily focus on these topics:

February 1 Sunday Family Preparedness Day
February 2 Monday NOAA Weather Radio
February 3 Tuesday Thunderstorm Safety
February 4 Wednesday Tornado Safety (Statewide Drill)
February 5 Thursday Lightning Safety
February 6 Friday Flooding (Alternate Drill Day)
February 7 Saturday Volunteers/Weather Spotters

"Severe Weather Awareness Week is the perfect time for every family in Chatham County to plan and rehearse what they should do during the first 72-hours of any severe weather-related event or disaster," stated CEMA Director Clayton Scott.

To help people get started, the Georgia Emergency Management Agency's Ready Georgia - a statewide emergency preparedness campaign - offers the necessary tools that residents need to make an emergency supply kit, develop a communications plan and stay informed about potential threats. Ready Georgia 's interactive Web site, www.ready.ga.gov, provides detailed information on Georgia-specific emergency preparedness and allows users to create a personal profile and receive a customized checklist and a family communications plan.

During winter storms, floods, tornadoes or hurricanes, it may take emergency workers 72-hours or more to reach certain areas in order to open roadways and restore utilities. The benefit of being self-sufficient for 72-hours, or longer, is that you and your family can survive circumstances that might otherwise be tragic, if you were not prepared. "With a little time and effort, families can prepare for severe weather hazards affecting our area. Developing a family disaster plan is the first step," said Director Scott.

Where will you and other family members be when severe weather or disaster strikes? Whether you are at work, at school, in the car or out-of-town, how will you find or contact each other? How will you know if your children are safe?

Severe weather or a disaster may force an evacuation of your neighborhood or confine you to your home. What will you do if your basic utilities - water, gas, electricity, or telephones -- are cut off? These are the types of questions your family disaster plan must address in order to help protect your family.

Follow these basic steps to develop a family disaster plan . . . .

Gather information about hazards
In addition to your local emergency management agency (CEMA), you may contact the nearest National Weather Service office, Ready Georgia or the American Red Cross. Find out what type of disasters could occur and how you should respond. Learn the community's warning signals and evacuation plans.

Meet with your family to create a plan
Discuss the information you have gathered. Pick two places to meet: a spot right outside your home for an emergency, such as fire, and a place away from your neighborhood in case you cannot return home. Choose an out-of-state friend as your "family check-in contact" for everyone to call if the family gets separated. Discuss what you would do if advised to evacuate.

Implement your plan
1. Post emergency telephone numbers by phones.

2. Install safety features in your house, such as a NOAA Weather Radio, smoke detectors and fire extinguishers.

3. Inspect your home for potential hazards: such as items that can move, fall, break or catch fire; and, correct them.

4. Have family members learn basic safety measures: such as CPR and first-aid; how to use a fire extinguisher; and, how and when to turn off water, gas and electricity in your home.

5. Teach children how and when to call 9-1-1 or your local Emergency Medical Services number.

6. Keep enough supplies in your home to meet your family's needs for at least three days.

7. Assemble an emergency preparedness kit with items you may need in case of an evacuation. Store these supplies in sturdy, easy-to-carry containers, such as backpacks or duffel bags. Keep important family documents in a waterproof container. Keep a smaller disaster supplies kit in the trunk of your car. A disaster supplies kit should include a three-day supply of water (one gallon per person per day) and food which will not spoil; one change of clothing and footwear per person; one blanket or sleeping bag per person; a first-aid kit (including prescription medicines); emergency tools (including a battery-powered NOAA Weather Radio and a portable radio, flashlight, and plenty of extra batteries); an extra set of car keys and cash; and, special items for infant, elderly, or disabled family members.

Practice and maintain your plan
Ask questions to make sure your family remembers meeting places, phone numbers, and safety rules. Conduct drills. Test your weather radio and smoke detectors monthly and change the batteries at least once a year. Test and recharge your fire extinguishers according to the manufacturer's instructions. Replace stored water and food every six months.

For more information, contact CEMA at (912) 201-4500 or visit these Web sites: www.ChathamEmergency.org, www.gema.ga.gov, www.ready.ga.gov, www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/, or www.ready.ga.gov.

About Ready Georgia
Ready Georgia is a statewide campaign designed to educate and empower Georgians to prepare for and respond to natural disasters, pandemic outbreaks, potential terrorist attacks and other large-scale emergencies. The campaign is a project of the Georgia Emergency Management Agency (GEMA) and provides a local dimension to Ready America, a broader national campaign. Ready Georgia aims to prepare citizens for maintaining self-sufficiency for at least 72 hours following an emergency, and uses an interactive Web site, online community toolkit, television and radio advertising and public awareness media messaging to reach its audiences.

"Mr. Tornado" -- Theodore Fujita

2009-01-30T17:54:00.008-05:00

Since it has been just over ten years since Dr. Fujita's death, I wrote a quick summary of his life and just a few of his accomplishments. Even though, truth be told, I have not done him justice.

Although he died in 1998, Dr. Tetsuya Theodore Fujita continues to be one of the most instrumental meteorology figures. He advanced the science of atmospheric science and severe thunderstorms like no other during his time. His legacy still continues today because of his endless devotion to studying and explaning severe weather phenomena. You may recognize the name Fujita; it is the common name for the tornado intensity scale--the Fujita Scale. Recently retired and replaced with the Enhanced Fujita Scale, the Fujita Scale was the first tornado rating scale based on damage severity alone. Mr. Tornado, as he was called, realized that there was a distinct corrolation between damage and tornadic wind speed.

Dr. Theodore Fujita was born in Japan on October 23, 1920 in the small rural town of Kitakyusu. After earning several degrees, including a Doctoral of Science from Tokyo University, Horace Byers encouraged him to come to the University of Chicago to futher his studies and teach meteorology.

Until the late 1970s when Dr. Fujita made extraordinary discoveries in the field of meteorology, tornadic thunderstorms were thought to have one main tornado that caused all of the damage associated with its path. The different wind damage patterns puzzled meteorologists and the general public. After observing and studying thousands of data and images, Dr. Fujita theorized that there were other "mini" tornadoes or vortices--more specifically called multiple vortex tornadoes-- that coexisted in particularly severe thunderstorms. In addition, he believed that thunderstorms had different types of wind shear within them--some surface based phenomenon included downbursts and tornadoes. He opined in several scientific journals that downbursts could be grouped into two distinct categories: either macrobursts or microbursts. The two prefixes simply indicate the magnitude of the damage from the air that falls. If the damage swath is less than 2.5 miles in diameter it is a microburst, if more it is a macroburst. All downbursts are caused by rapidly descending columns of air because of dry layers within a thunderstorm. These columns hit the surface of the Earth and spread rapidly outward. The damage caused by these collapses within cumulonimbus clouds had a distinct and obvious difference with the damage caused by tornadoes. These theories by Dr. Fujita were later proven by other scientists.

Dr. Fujita truly was an old-school scientist. Born in 1920, he was not educated in an age with supercomputers and computer modeling techniques. When the advent of computers did materialize, he believed that the computers simply "didn't understand these [meteorology] things" ("Tornado researcher Ted Fujita died in 1998," 2005).

During his childhood, he was in Japan amidst the growing tensions between the United States and Japan resulting in World War Two. Ironically, Fujita was saved by Mother Nature herself when the weather was overcast, which proved unfavorable for an atomic bomb drop at the Kokura Terminal which was about three miles from where Fujita worked. After the atomic bomb drops on Nagasaki and Hiroshima, the Japanese government sent Fujita to study the damage that was inflicted on those areas (Marshall, 1998). It is amazing that the weather saved Dr. Theodore Fujita's life, the very living person that would make unprecedented meteorological discoveries.

I thank him for his work in the atmospheric and meteorological fields. I wish that I would have had the opportunity to meet such an intelligent man and discuss his theories. It has been ten years since his death yet his discoveries are still the foundation of what we know today about mesoscale meteorology. We dedicate this entry to him and his hard work.

(To request references, please contact us.)

We value your opinion; Take our quick survey.

2009-01-23T22:30:00.003-05:00

Hello there. We value your input and opinion regarding our weather website and this blog. In order to ensure that we provide the most useful information for our visitors, we have created a short, dynamic survey that asks a series of questions about our site. We encourage everyone to submit their thoughts through this survey. If enough contribute their opinion, we can continue to provide some of the best weather information for Skidaway Island.

Here is the link to the survey: http://www.myskidawayisland.com/survey/survey.php?s_id=1

Thank you all in advance.

Come on Down and see the National Weather Service!

2009-01-22T20:05:00.003-05:00

Representatives from our National Weather Service forecast office will be in Savannah this weekend. They will have a booth exhibit at the Charleston Boat Show. The meteorologists there will answer questions and accept input and comments regarding their new National Digital Forecast Database on their website at weather.gov . Their exhibit will be located outside between the parking lot E and the building. Here's the Public Information Statement released earlier today by the National Weather Service:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
851 AM EST THU JAN 22 2009

...YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT THE CHARLESTON BOAT SHOW...

THIS FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...JANUARY 23...24 AND 25...YOUR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON WILL BE PARTICIPATING AT
THE BOAT SHOW AT THE NORTH CHARLESTON CONVENTION CENTER.

UNLIKE RECENT YEARS WHEN WE WERE LOCATED INSIDE...THIS YEAR WE
WILL BE OUTSIDE NEAR THE MAIN ENTRANCE TO THE CONVENTION
CENTER...BETWEEN THE BUILDING AND PARKING LOT E.

WE WILL BE ON HAND TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS ABOUT WEATHER...AND
WILL PROVIDE VARIOUS FREE HANDOUTS...FOR BOTH ADULTS AND CHILDREN.

IN ADDITION...WE WILL BE SHOWCASING OUR WEBSITE...AS WELL AS
PROVIDING OTHER SOURCES OF WHERE YOU MAY OBTAIN MARINE WEATHER
INFORMATION...FORECASTS AND DATA.

WE WILL REVIEW AND PROMOTE OUR NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST
DATABASE...AND WE WILL BE HAPPY TO ACCEPT YOUR COMMENTS REGARDING
OUR FORECASTS...PRODUCTS AND SERVICES.

BE SURE TO STOP BY OUR DISPLAY TABLE NEAR THE MAIN ENTRANCE TO THE
CONVENTION CENTER. WE WILL BE THERE DURING THE FOLLOWING DATES AND
TIMES...

FRIDAY...JANUARY 23...FROM NOON TO 7 PM.

SATURDAY...JANUARY 24...FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM.

SUNDAY...JANUARY 25...FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM.

WE HOPE TO SEE YOU THERE.

$$

More Cold Air?

2009-01-20T21:11:00.005-05:00

We had some fairly good snowfall amounts in the low country of South Carolina. Anywhere from a trace to a half an inch fell in some places. The local storm reports out of the area showed that most of the now stayed north of a line from Beaufort to Screven. The majority of our area stayed precipitation free as the drier air moved through. I was taken back at the lack of precipitation in the area. Normally, I would be unhappy with the dry air in place but sometimes this lack of moisture in the lower levels can lead to a higher possibility of snowfall because the surface ambient temperature is colder. There have been times when the surface temperature was 40°F and snow was falling--albeit not accumulating. That wasn't the case today however it was possible and I wondered why there weren't more television personalities discussing the chance of snow flurries for the local area. I can attest to the lack of snow in the Chatham County area. As for the outlying areas, I believe for all intensive purposes that they did see a few snow flurries early today.

The National Weather Service did a good job issuing winter weather advisories and special weather statements as needed for the wintry precipitation we experienced. The weather forecast offices in Columbia and Charleston received reports of a trace to a half an inch of snowfall, mainly on grassy surfaces in the midlands of SC. The main headaches were for those traveling through the airport-hub in Charlotte, North Carolina where they received between three and six inches of snowfall repectively.

At least for the next few days, we will have cold and brisk air filtering in from the north and northwest. That trend will dominate our weather for the good part of the week and, by this weekend, we should see some moderation in temperatures, quite possibly to spring-time levels. The precipitation forecast doesn't look good. We already have a rainfall defecit at the Savannah International Airport, continuing the trend from last year. The next chance of rain will come by the end of this weekend. It's important to note that we did finish the last year with a precipitation surplus which is definitely a good thing.

The inauguration weather was splendid for this time of year. I believe the chance of snow showers in the Washington vicinity was somewhere around five percent, roughly one in twenty. Either way, the beautiful weather did materialize and gave the spectators at the Lincoln Memorial and all of Washington a great sight without having to contend Mother Nature.

Stay Warm!

Snow in the Southeast?

2009-01-19T11:20:00.003-05:00

It looks like there could be some snow later tonight and Tuesday morning for most of northern southeast locations including Charleston, Columbia, Charlotte, and Atlanta. Some locations could receive more than one inch of frozen precipitation which is significant. The latest models indicate that as a low pressure system moves toward the southeastern coast, colder air will move in behind the system. With the increase in moisture and freezing temperatures, there is a significant chance for wintry weather across much of north and central South Carolina, northern Georgia, and the western half of North Carolina. If you have any family members in those areas, they should see a fairly good amount of snow relatively speaking.

For our area, the majority of the moisture throughout the atmosphere will stay to the north of the Chatham County and Savannah Areas. The National Weather Service in Charleston has actually included a very slight chance of snow/rain on Tuesday afternoon, right now at approx. 20 percent. I tend to concur; however, I believe most of the frozen precipitation will stay out of the immediate coastal empire and low country of South Carolina. The NWS tends to believe this as well in their most recent Area Forecast Discussion. While the threat does exist for a winter mix in the low country of South Carolina and far inland areas of the coastal empire if moisture and cold air is abundant enough, I doubt it will actually happen. So the bottom line for tomorrow--don't get too excited, we're not going to see any snow.

Just a quick note--we'll be tracking the possible frozen precipitation on the Early Waning Doppler HD radar page. You can always get the latest weather information on our website at www.myskidawayisland.com/weather/ and from the National Weather Service at http://www.erh.noaa.gov/chs/.

Have a great MLK Jr. Day!

New Chatham County Sirens

2009-01-18T19:32:00.002-05:00

The Chatham County Emergency Management Agency lobbied the county to purchase new tornado/emergency sirens for the local area. The sirens will complement the existing network of emergency alert units. These new sirens will be a great asset during the severe weather season, informing citizens to the potential for severe weather (e.g. tornado warnings). The below images show the old map and the newer map with pinks indicating the new coverage. Personnel from the Chatham Emergency Management Agency (CEMA) tell the media that the sirens will most likely be operational and working properly by March of 2009 if all goes as planned.

Old Sirens

New Sirens

Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler

2009-01-18T11:15:00.014-05:00

Not only have we added more updated weather information and radar images, the Skidaway Island Weather Center has access to more than 140 Doppler radar sites around the United States. This capability, used in conjunction with all the different weather radar products, allows us to monitor, track, and interrogate precipitation (e.g. thunderstorms, showers, etc.) and large-scale synoptic weather features. During severe weather season, this computer application gives us the ability to streamline different data and upload that onto our web server for your accessibility. You are able to view weather radar, surface observation, and severe weather information. Below are several images showing the capabilities of the Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler. The first demonstrates a four-panel display of both base reflectivity and base velocity (with both having a different scan elevation tilt equaling four images). The second shows storm tracks using publicly-available SCIT data from the National Weather Service NEXRAD.

Generally Normal Temperatures; Several Cold Pockets

2009-01-12T22:00:00.003-05:00

After examining various model output, I can come to one conclusion. There will be mild and seasonally-average temperatures with slightly lower precipitation. The short term MOS guidance suggests that cold--or at least marginally cold--temperatures will dominate the weather. By the end of this week (1/20), the 850mb temps show a drastic cool down. With 850mb temps of around ten below zero, I would reasonably conclude that temperatures will drop to below 30 degrees for coastal counties, and quite a few degrees below 25°F for inland areas of southeast Georgia and southern South Carolina. So the bottom line: there will be a very cold "pocket" of air coming in by the end of the week. Temperatures will again moderate and once again drop below freezing by the mid-part of next week.

Weather Center Receives Much Needed Upgrade

2009-01-10T21:24:00.009-05:00

I sincerely thank all those who have continued to use the weather conditions on our website at the Skidaway Island Weather Center. All the hard work put into coding and establishing this weather website and our parent website has been well worth the effort. I continue to ensure that the Skidaway Island Weather Center is one of the best weather information sites for hyper-local and live weather information. I value the input from visitors and users of our weather data.

After discontinuing updates to this weather blog, I have decided to revitalize this blog with weather information, especially severe weather in our area. I am committed to giving users of the Skidaway Island Weather website with reliable, and most importantly, accurate weather and meteorological information. I will continually update and inform visitors and readers of this blog on a regular basis about meteorological phenomena occurring in our area and those of other parts of the country.

As a part of an unfaltering commitment to users of our weather data, this past month, the Skidaway Island Weather Center's website, http://www.myskidawayisland.com/weather/, received a much needed design upgrade. In a continuing effort to uphold the standards of the weather website, we redesigned and renewed our weather data website. New data and information has been made available including live Doppler radar imagery, and updating live weather web cams. In addition, our parent website which offers information related to Skidaway Island located at http://www.myskidawayisland.com/ has received a "makeover". Both websites include more updated web design rendering methodology in accordance with current web standards.

We have also written information regarding lightning and safety. That is also located at http://www.myskidawayisland.com/lightning/.

Patrick Prokop, from WTOC-DT/TV, has also used our weather data on on-air broadcasts.

Until the next update,

Late December Coastal Storm

2007-12-25T14:42:00.000-05:00

I wanted to blog a little about the coastal storm we had earlier this month on December 20 - 21. The storm was caused by a low pressure which developed over the area and brought us some rain. Here on Skidaway Island, we saw just over 1.75" of rain. The National Weather Service didn't add our total to the map; but we did send them our report for the island.

The graphic below shows the astronomical rain total the international airport received over seven inches of rain while here on the island, we saw under two inches. Notice the very high wind justs which were measured by various observations.

I also want to add the forecast for Christmas Day: we will see some showers and a few thunderstorms as the Christmas day progresses. I don't think it will be a complete washout. We might see a little under one inch in some areas; otherwise, we should see under one half inch.

Rain for Christmas Day?

2007-12-24T11:44:00.000-05:00

It looks like we should see some rain showers during the evening hours of Christmas day; hopefully, the rain will stay offshore until the nighttime hours. Here is what I think is going to happen: A low pressure is going to develop off the coast of Georgia. This low should travel up the coast moving away from the area toward the north.

Here is the 6Z 12/25 image from the 12Z NAM run. It looks like this low won't be very strong. It should just bring us some small rainfall amounts. In most areas, we should get a quarter of an inch.

On the other hand, the GFS 12Z run suggests the low will be a much broader low pressure system. This would mean that the low isn't as strong which would usually result in less rainfall.

So for all of you that ask: Are we going to have a white Christmas?

The answer is unfortunately 'no'. We most likely will not see frozen precipitation.

2007-12-23T22:15:00.000-05:00

Hello Everyone. Welcome back! We are going to start posting blog updates once again on this blog for weather occurring on Skidaway Island. Be sure to bookmark the blog as we will keep you updated with the latest information.

If you haven't noticed, our weather station wind readings are not reporting because we are currently working with the Landings Association Public Works department to reposition our anemometer, or wind measuring device.

We hope to have this equipment up and running by late January or early February of next year. This equipment will help us receive more accurate wind observations. These in turn help the National Weather Service and other agencies with their forecasts, etc. If you would like to read more about this read the full press release below.

Press Release

2007-12-17T16:06:00.000-05:00

2007-12-02T06:49:00.000-05:00

Refer to Our Website for the Lastest Information:

2007-08-08T10:45:00.000-04:00

Please refer to our website at:

http://www.myskidawayisland.com/weather/index.html

All the latest weather information will be located there. As of today, the latest weather information will be posted on our website not here. We have done this to ensure that you get the latest weather information when you need it in an organized fashion.

Thank You!

Heat Advisory in Effect for Today until 7 PM - 8/5 7 AM

2007-08-06T07:18:00.000-04:00

332 am EDT Mon Aug 6 2007

...Heat advisory remains in effect from 11 am this morning to
7 PM EDT this evening...

High temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 90s away
from the immediate coast. The heat combined with high levels of
humidity will result in heat index values in the 108 to 112 degree
range for several hours today...mainly during the afternoon.
Even at the beaches the heat index will reach near 105 degrees for
at least a few hours.

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible.

Similar conditions are expected throughout most of the upcoming
week...with the potential for additional heat advisories or
possibly even an excessive heat warning by mid week.

During the hot and humid weather you are urged drink enough water
to remain hydrated. If you can stay in an air conditioned room.
Stay out of the sunshine as much as possible. Check up on the
very Young...the elderly and those that are ill.

Also remember your pets. They need a shady and cool location...as
well as plenty of fresh drinking water. Never leave an animal
inside a parked car...even with thew windows rolled down.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio all hazards for the latest
information from your National Weather Service in Charleston.

Rain for Today! & Tropical Outlook - 8/3 7:19 AM EDT

2007-08-03T07:19:00.000-04:00

We are going to see that rain chance stay with us for the next few days through Sunday. This is all because of a stationary front that is moving northward from northern Florida. This, in combination, with a weak low pressure area in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, will give us a chance of rain through the weekend.

The rain has started to come down this morning. It started around 5:30 AM ET and has continued for the past few hours. It has stopped raining as of 7:15 AM ET. We will see the chances of rain get higher as we go through the afternoon hours. The biggest chance of rain today will be for the areas that are east of Interstate 95. Then, by tomorrow, we will see the chance of rain overspread the whole area. This will give us some much needed rain as we still do need rain to get rid of our deficit.

The chance of rain will diminish by Monday and we'll see highs in the mid ninties inland. On the islands, by the beginning of next week, we will see highs in the upper eighties. The nighttime lows will be in the lower seventies.

Tropical Outlook

The tropical wave that was in the eastern Caribbean has significantly weakened overnight. From the start, I really didn't think that this wave was going to be any concern. However, I kept monitoring it for further signs of development. At this time, the convection around the low really hasn't flared up this morning as it did yesterday. If it had, we might have seen a tropical depression out of the wave; but, we didn't.

As of this morning (8-3-07), none of the major computer forecast guidance are suggesting any type of development from this wave. Furthermore, the models are rather smart in saying this because of all of the dry air that is in the Caribbean. If the wave were to develop, this dry air would have acted as a stability zone that would have made it very hard for it to further develop before it were torn apart.

There are no other areas of concern as of this morning. Some of the models are indicating some activity later next week. However, I do not expect any major tropical development as the same models that forecasted the wave above to strengthen, are forecasting other waves to strengthen next week.

Here is a look at where this tropical wave is now headed as told by the computer forecast models:

If there is any more tropical developments that occur in the Atlantic basin we will be sure to tell you about it.

Have a great weekend!

A Few Showers This Morning

2007-08-02T09:00:00.002-04:00

There are some showers that are developing and moving onshore from the ocean south of Skidaway Island. Most of those showers will stay south of us. However, we are do have a slight chance of some showers this morning. The chance will also be with us tonight with the biggest chance of rain this evening will be east of Interstate 95. None of those showers will be severe or strong in nature. The only chance of rain are showers, which means that lightning will not be associated with them.

Just a recap, we received 3.89" of rain on the day we saw some flooding. Other areas around Savannah received anywhere from 2" of rain to 4" of rain.

We are tracking the showers on Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler Radar and will keep you informed.

An Astounding Rain Total of a little under 4 Inches

2007-07-30T20:13:00.000-04:00

We received an astounding amount of rain in the past few hours. Currently, the official rainfall total on Skidaway Island is a little under 4" of rain. We are still receiving the rain so we could get even more.

Right now, we are under a Flood Watch. This just means that poorly drained areas will mostly likely have some shallow flooding. This type of advisory is only issued when there is a minimal threat to life or property. However, heavy flooding can and probably will occur in poorly drained areas. Therefore, be careful while driving as a vehicle can be swept away in only two feet of moving water. A person can be swept away in only six inches of water.

We will keep you updated on the situation that is occurring. We will also post a Tropical Update in about an hour with the latest information from the tropics.

Getting Much need Rain!

2007-07-30T18:46:00.001-04:00

In the past thirty minutes, we have received 0.30" of rain (and counting), which is great. We really need it. However, there is very frequent lightning occurring with these thunderstorms. Please stay indoors and away from windows. There are no warning that have been issued as of yet. The only exception is a Special Marine Warning from the Savannah River Entrance to Edisto Beach out 20 Nautical Miles.

Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms

2007-07-30T15:40:00.000-04:00

Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms are going to be moving into the area. Some could be thunderstorms with heavy rain and deadly cloud to ground lightning. We will keep you informed. In the past five minutes, we received 0.02" of rain on the island. The image below shows what we are monitoring:

Threat for Severe Weather Today

2007-07-30T09:59:00.000-04:00

We have a chance of some showers and thunderstorms. Some of which could be severe. Be be aware of rapidly changing weather conditions as showers and thunderstorms approach. Some of these thunderstorms could become severe with cloud-to-ground lightning, small hail, very heavy rain, and high winds.

Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. We will be monitoring the weather situation to keep you informed. Below is a picture of what we are tracking right now:

Severe Threat Ended for Today

2007-07-29T21:06:00.000-04:00

The severe threat has ended for today. The severe thunderstorms have died down because of a lose of daytime heating. Therefore, we will mostly likely see just some rumbles of thunder and maybe a few stray showers. Otherwise, it is looking like a mostly quiet night with temperatures dropping down into the lower seventies because of the cloud cover.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Tattnal County...

2007-07-29T19:11:00.000-04:00

We have a situation developing. Thunderstorms are developing along a line extending from 5 miles south of Vidialia to 6 miles south of Hinesville. These storms could be enhanced by a severe thunderstorm's outflow boundary. Therefore, we could see some more severe thunderstorms.

There is a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Tattnal County until 7:45 pm.

Here is a pictures of the Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler. This is what we are monitoring:

No Showers Around... Yet.

2007-07-29T15:45:00.000-04:00

We are not seeing any showers and thunderstorms yet. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon.

It is an absolutely wonderful day to go boating. Temperatures are going to be reaching in the lower eighties through the evening, so it is going to be great. Winds are pretty much calm. At the Savannah International Airport, the winds are around 5 mph out of the west. Enjoy this while you can.

Throughout the afternoons this week, we will see that chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of those cold be rather strong with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and very heavy downpours.

We will be monitoring in storms that develop and we'll keep you informed. The image below shows what we are tracking one the Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler Radar:

Severe Threat Again Today

2007-07-29T10:19:00.000-04:00

We have that severe threat again today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are going to develop this afternoon. Some of which could be strong and some very isolated storms could be severe with very heavy rain, large hail, high winds, and deadly cloud to ground lightning. Stay tuned to the Skidaway Island Weather Center Blog and the Skidaway Island Weather Center website for the latest weather information.

We will keep you up to date with the latest weather information.

Severe Threat Ended for Today

2007-07-28T18:25:00.000-04:00

The severe threat has ended today. We will mostly likely see the rain continue through about 8PM. After that, the rain will die off until tomorrow afternoon when we will see some more thunderstorms. It will not be as severe though, which is a good thing since we really need that rain.

Today on the island, we officially received 1.09" of rain from our weather station. Hopefully, we can get some more of that rain tomorrow. At one point this afternoon, we had a rain rate of 65" per hour. That is some serious heavy rainfall!

If you heard about the funnel cloud, we did indeed have a funnel cloud. It wasn't officially a tornado because no damage was reported and there was no touchdown. Furthermore, it was reported by the public and the emergency manager didn't confirm the existence of the funnel cloud. Also, there was no Tornado Warning. The National Weather Service didn't think it was that big of a threat in the scheme of things... very high winds, cloud to ground lightning, and small hail.

Strong Thunderstorms Going to Impact Chatham County

2007-07-28T14:37:00.001-04:00

There is a strong thunderstorm that is going to affect Chatham County. Get in a sturdy shelter immediately. There is dangerous lightning occurring almost constantly with this storm.

Refer to below posts for current warnings

2007-07-28T14:24:00.000-04:00

Here is an image of what we are monitoring in the Skidaway Island Weather Center. We will keep you updated with the latest weather information.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Jasper County until 315 PM EDT

2007-07-28T14:22:00.000-04:00

WUUS52 KCHS 281821
SVRCHS
SCC053-281915-
/O.NEW.KCHS.SV.W.0175.070728T1821Z-070728T1915Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
221 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
JASPER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT

* AT 221 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
EBENEZER...OR ABOUT 11 MILES EAST OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 10 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...
EBENEZER...
PURYSBURGH...
HARDEEVILLE...
JASPER...PRITCHARD...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024.

LAT...LON 3204 8094 3210 8099 3207 8106 3212 8112
3219 8111 3224 8116 3228 8112 3234 8113
3237 8118 3251 8122 3235 8092 3229 8094
3229 8100 3222 8101 3217 8095 3213 8096
3213 8091 3204 8089
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 295DEG 11KT 3242 8120

$$

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Beaufort County until 3 PM EDT

2007-07-28T13:58:00.000-04:00

WUUS52 KCHS 281820
SVRCHS
SCC013-281900-
/O.NEW.KCHS.SV.W.0174.070728T1820Z-070728T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
220 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BEAUFORT COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 219 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BLUFFTON...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND...
MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...
BLUFFTON...HILTON HEAD ISLAND...
FOREST BEACH...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024.

LAT...LON 3208 8091 3210 8089 3211 8091 3213 8091
3224 8095 3229 8076 3228 8072 3222 8066
3214 8073 3206 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 000DEG 7KT 3217 8087

$$

New Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Effingham County until 3PM EDT

2007-07-28T13:21:00.000-04:00

WUUS52 KCHS 281757
SVRCHS
GAC103-281900-
/O.NEW.KCHS.SV.W.0172.070728T1757Z-070728T1900Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
157 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 157 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
GUYTON...OR ABOUT OVER SPRINGFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...
GUYTON...SPRINGFIELD...
PINEORA...
MARLOW...
STILLWELL...
RINCON...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024.

LAT...LON 3223 8144 3232 8146 3238 8152 3246 8148
3240 8118 3237 8118 3234 8113 3230 8112
3224 8116 3223 8115 3224 8120 3217 8129
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 294DEG 7KT 3234 8142

$$

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Issued For Effinham and Bryan County

2007-07-28T13:17:00.000-04:00

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
BRYAN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 200 PM EDT

* AT 120 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
BLITCHTON...OR ABOUT 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF PEMBROKE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE...
MARLOW...PINEORA...
BLITCHTON...
ELLABELL...
EDEN...
MELDRIM...

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN CHARLESTON TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Just Issed

2007-07-28T13:00:00.000-04:00

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued until 8 PM EDT for the Skidaway Island Area. The below text highlights all of the watch information:

urgent - immediate broadcast requested
Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 599
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2007

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

northern Florida
southeast Georgia
Southern South Carolina
coastal waters

Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until
800 PM EDT.

Hail to 2 inches in diameter...thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
mph...and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles north northwest
of Savannah Georgia to 45 miles south southeast of Ocala Florida.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (wous64 kwns wou9).

Remember...a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.

Other watch information...continue...ww 558...

Discussion...axis of strong to locally extreme instability will fuel
intense tstm development across these areas this afternoon. Storm
coverage and duration may be enhanced/sustained by large scale
diffluent flow aloft associated with decaying MCS/MCV tracking sewd
from GA. Several robust storms/multicell clusters and storm
interactions should increase the potential for large hail and
damaging winds.

Aviation...a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
motion vector 34015.

...Carbin/imy

Expires:290000 gmt
;323,0801 283,0804 284,0831 325,0824

Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms

2007-07-28T09:36:00.000-04:00

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today. Please be aware of rapidly changing weather conditions as it is looking like we could have a few strong to severe thunderstorms in the area today between 2 PM and 10 PM. Here is the image from the Storm Prediction Center's Website:

There is a 15% chance of the severe thunderstorms that develop could produce damaging winds in excess of 58 miles an hours and hail greater than 3/4" in diameter. There is also a 2% chance of a tornado somewhere in SE Georgia. In the scheme of things, I don't think there will be a prevalent threat of tornadoes later today on the islands. A 2% chance of a tornado is high in the overall aspect of the forecasts that the SPC puts out. Here is the tornado probability graphic that was issued with the 1258Z forecast:

Just remember to keep informed, turn your NOAA weather radios on and listen for warnings and watches that may be issued. We will be sure to keep you informed on this blog immediately if watches or warning are issued for our area.

Another quick note, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. So don't go outside and play golf or ride your bike if you hear thunder because you are at risk when you do so. Lightning can strike even when the sky above you is perfectly blue.

Storms Firing Up Once Again Today!

2007-07-27T14:33:00.000-04:00

Storms are going to fire up and are already starting to do so. We will keep you informed. The below image is an image of what we are tracking:

Ealier, Funnel Cloud Reported off Hilton Head Island

2007-07-26T20:59:00.000-04:00

Earlier today, a train weather spotter reported a funnel cloud right off of Hilton Head Island. A tornado warning was issued because of the trained spotter's report. The below image was taken on the Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler, right before the storm was about to affect the Hilton Head Island area:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Expired for Chatham County

2007-07-26T16:47:00.001-04:00

The Severe Thunderstorm has been allowed to expire. None-the-less, we will continue to monitor the situation. Below is an image of Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler Radar, it is what we are monitoring:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Chatham County, GA until 4:45 PM

2007-07-26T16:02:00.000-04:00

400 PM EDT Thu Jul 26 2007

The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Chatham County in southeast Georgia...

* until 445 PM EDT

* at 359 PM EDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing penny size hail...and
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near
White Bluff...or about 7 miles southwest of Savannah...moving south
at 5 mph.

* Some locations in or near the path of the storm include...
Burroughs...
White Bluff...
Windsor Forest...
Vernonburg...

This thunderstorm is capable of producing very heavy rain...which may
flood roads...ditches and low-lying areas. Avoid flood prone areas
and do not drive into places where water covers the Road.

To report severe weather only...please contact the National Weather
Service in Charleston toll free at 1-888-383-2024.

Thunderstorms Developing Around the Area

2007-07-26T13:20:00.000-04:00

Thunderstorms are starting to fire up around the area. We are monitoring the situation and will keep you information with the latest information. Furthermore, the sea breeze front that is coming off the ocean may enhance the thunderstorm activity later this afternoon as daytime heating occurs and is the strongest.

Below is an image of what we are tracking on the Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler Radar:

Today's Forecast

2007-07-26T08:41:00.001-04:00

We will see temperatures in the mid eighties on the island, and in the upper eighties west of Interstate 95. The chance of rain will be mainly this afternoon at about 30%. The biggest chance for those scattered thunderstorms, however, will be tommorrow and then on Saturday.

We got some much need rain yesterday. On the island, we officially received 0.48" of rain. At the International Airport, they received alittle over one inch of rain.

In the tropics, no tropical development is expected within the next 24 - 48 hours.

We got some much needed rain today!

2007-07-25T18:23:00.000-04:00

Today we got some much appreciated rain today. Officially, our weather station on the island got 0.48" of rain. This is about a half an inch less than what the airport received, alittle over 1".

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the region. Because of little to no organized upper air movement, we have seen these showers move very iratically throughout the area.

Tommorrow is looking like a carbon copy of today. Temperatures will be mid eighties on the island, upper eighties inland and that chance of showers and thunderstorms will stay with us throughout the week into the weekend.

There was alot of lightning out there today, while golfers were playing golf. Remember that if you can here thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. To get the latest weather information go to our website, http://www.skidawayweather.com/ and receive the latest live radar images.

Tropical Outlook

The tropical Atlantic is looking all quiet. I, as well as the National Hurricane Center, do not expect any tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours.

The Humidity is Back!

2007-07-25T10:14:00.000-04:00

The humidity is certainly back today. This morning, we had a low on the island of 74°F on the island with a dewpoint of 73°F. Remember, the higher the dewpoint, the more humid it feels outside. During the sumer, we usually get dewpoints in the upper sixties to lower seventies in the morning, which gives us that humidity all the time.

Today's high temperature will be around 89°F so will be below average; but with all the humidity, it will feel relatively hot.

We do see a few showers off the coast and a few inland showers on the Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler. With the abundant moisture in the atmosphere, we will see that chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the daytime hours. Below is an image of what we are monitoring:

New Record Low for Savannah Intl Airport

2007-07-24T11:47:00.001-04:00

This morning, the Savannah International Airport had a record low temperature that was set at 64°F. This temperature breaks the previous record of 66°F set back in 1963.

The official text is below:

945 am EDT Tue Jul 24 2008

...Record low temperature set at Savannah Airport...

A record low temperature of 64 degrees was set at Savannah Airport
this morning. This breaks the old record of 66 set in 1963...

Nice Weather!

2007-07-23T12:04:00.000-04:00

For the next few days, we are going to have some great less humid weather for at least another day. That humidity should come back with a bang by mid week when we'll see humidity values that will be very high.

Anvil Shaped Thunderstorm

2007-07-21T18:33:00.000-04:00

Local Doppler (Live & On Your Side) and the Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler showed an anvil shaped thunderstorm in 3-D mode. This three dimensional mode can help us look at thunderstorms in a true "real shape" perspective. We can see hail cores before they impact the ground or before a tornado touches down. In addition, we get weather warnings (including Tornado, Severe Thunderstorm, and Flashflood Warnings) atleast 10 seconds before NOAA Weather Radios are sent the warnings. And in a severe weather situation, 10 seconds can save lives. This helps us keep you ahead of the storm.

Anyway, here are pictures from Local Doppler (Live & On Your Side) radar. Notice how the cloud looks like an anvil. This is a classic characteristic of a thunderstorm, more commonly a severe thunderstorm.

Fire on Wassaw Island

2007-07-21T13:50:00.000-04:00

Yesterday afternoon, the forestry service on Wassaw Island reported a fire on Wassaw Island. This fire was most likely started by lightning from yesterday's storms. You can see it here on the Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler Radar Image:

Pictures from the fire:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Cancelled

2007-07-21T11:33:00.000-04:00

The severe thunderstorm Watch was cancelled yesterday at 10 PM EDT.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #548

2007-07-20T15:04:00.000-04:00

Like I said earlier, severe thunderstorm is a possibility. Therefore, we are now under severe thunderstorm watch 548 until 10 PM EDT...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 548
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF:

SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for Today

2007-07-20T09:44:00.000-04:00

The image above shows the areas that are under a Slight risk of severe thunderstorms. These areas include the Skidaway Island area and most of eastern Georgia. Notice that the slight risk is delineated by a green line encircling the areas that have that risk. The risk extends from eastern Georiga, all of South Carolina, and most of extreme eastern North Carolina.

Most TV weather people are saying that we won't see that chance of rain very high for this afternoon; however, I think otherwise. I do think that we will see some rain even a couple of showers and thunderstorms. And those thunderstorms that develop may be strong to severe.

After looking at the models, I infered that most of the trustworthy models are indicating we will see some rain. The one variable that they are not in agreement is when the showers/thunderstorms will develop. They will mostly likely develop late this afternoon, mainly between 6 pm and 9 pm. If you have any outdoors plans for this evening, I would keep a close eye on the weather as a cold front moves through later this afternoon and this evening. One good tool to have to keep track of the weather is a NOAA Weather Radio. This can alert you when severe weather is near your location.

The good side to this chance of rain is we will see a very nice end of the weekend and beginning of next week with low humidities. Stay tuned to the Skidaway Island Weather Center and our blog for the latest weather information.

Today's Forecast

2007-07-19T12:23:00.001-04:00

We are starting to see some showers build in from the west from Birmingham, AL to following I-16 and then down towards Savannah, GA. These showers, in combination with daytime heating and very high humidities, will result in a slight chance of thunderstorms later this afternoon. Another factor is if we have very high temperatures and heat index values. If they get above 110°F for a long period of time, we could see some thunderstorms pop up along the sea breeze boundary. However, the biggest chance of rain will be tommorrow, Friday, and then on Saturday.

Saturday is looking like the biggest chance of strong thunderstorms to develop because of the abundant moisture in the atmosphere and high CAPE values.

In the tropics, everything is looking very quiet. The one exception is the tropical wave that is going through the lesser Antilles. This has literally no chance for development because of high shear values. Otherwise, there is no immediate threat of tropical development.

The Rest of the Week Forecast & Weather Radios

2007-07-17T22:12:00.000-04:00

For the rest of the week, we will see a slight chance of rain on Thursday and Friday, about a 30%. The biggest chance of showers and thunderstorms will be this Saturday, and it is looking like we could see a thunderstorm outbreak. Maybe a few strong to severe thunderstorms could develop on Saturday and could become severe with large hail and damaging winds.

This is a perfect time to get your NOAA Weather All-Hazard Radio. This radio can give you life saving weather warning information and alerts when severe weather threatens. You can buy a weather radio at any area Publix grocery store around Chatham county. The radios cost about $29 and it on sale from the regular price of $49. If you have any questions about purchasing a weather radio, don't hesistate to email us at weatherradios@myskidawayisland.com .

We will keep an eye on the rain situation over the next few days. We will tell you if the forecast models change from now until then. We will also keep you informed minute-by-minute on this blog if severe weather threatens anytime this week.

If you have a story that you would like us to talk about on our blog, tell us by emailing us at stories@myskidawayisland.com .

Tracking Storms...

2007-07-17T13:45:00.001-04:00

We are tracking storms. Here is a live feed from the Skidaway Island SkyTracker Radar:

The Rest of the Week

2007-07-17T11:44:00.000-04:00

Today, 7-18-07, we will see a mix of sun and clouds that are going to be dominating the weather. However, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. While others are saying otherwise, I think that we are going to see some scattered showers develope later today. With combination of daytime heating and moisture, we could see a heavy downpour or two later this afternoon.

As it stands right now, we will not see the severe weather that we saw last weekend. However, there is the possibility of a few strong thunderstorms that have the potential to produce high winds between 30 and 40 mph. This doesn't reach severe limits; therefore, we won't see any severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

Throughout the rest of the week, mainly Wednesday through Sunday, we will see the chance of rain. This should stay with us through the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will stay in the lower ninties inland and upper eighties along the coast. We could even see an inland locating see a 95°F reading later this week.

The heat index will not be as high of a threat as it was last week. Temperatures and humidities are not expected to combine and create a hazardous situation outside with the heat. Never-the-less, we will see heat indicies getting into the 100°F range. So, just be sure to drink plenty of water and non-caffeinated drinks and stay in the shade as much as possible if you are going to be outside.

In the tropics, we see no immediate threat of tropical development. Everything looks very quiet on both satellite and the models.

Wow! No Rain...

2007-07-15T18:45:00.000-04:00

Amazingly, we didn't see that rain that all weather people around here were talking about that was going to happen. We are seeing right now, as of 6:46 pm edt, some showers that extend from west of Statesboro down to Metter, over toward Vidalia.

This should continue to move toward the east and will probably follow I-16. But, it shouldn't reach the Savannah because the sea breeze boundary didn't develop or interact with the thunderstorms. There still is a chance of a heavy downpour or two during the next 2 - 4 hours. That, in combination with the sea breeze boundary that didn't develop, will not give us a very good chance of rain, right now it is only about a 20 - 30% chance. We do need the rain, but we probably won't get it today.

Today's Forecast

2007-07-15T09:23:00.000-04:00

Hello Everyone!

We got some much needed rain yesterday as a cold front helped enhance our chance of rain. We got an official total of 0.84" of rain on the island. That really helped our defecit greatly.

Today will most likely be a carbon copy of yesterday. We will see a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. If you are doing anything this morning you are alright. You'll just have to deal with alittle fog and humidity "here and there" around the island.

A chance of strong to severe thunderstorms once again is in the forecast. The main threat will be damaging wind gusts with a secondary threat (and a very small threat) of severe hail.

Chance of Severe Wind (Percentage of Chance)

Be sure to keep those NOAA All Hazards Weather Radios on and on 'Alert' mode so you can be alerted if/when severe weather strikes.

Rain Rain Stay Today

2007-07-14T18:00:00.000-04:00

We got some much needed rainfall from this rain event today. There was a severe thunderstorm warning that was issued for the Chatham County area. That expired at 5 PM and we had just some steady rain and a few lightning strikes.

Right now, as of 6 PM we are under a Flood Advisory, not a warning. The flood adivsory means that we will have some shallow flooding of low lying roads. This is an advisory that is not life threatning by any means. Just be careful and don't drive into flooded roadways as you need only two feet of water to float your car. You only need 6" of rain to be swept away with running water.

We'll keep you posted. If you have any pictures of the weather, email them to us at weather@myskidawayisland.com and we will feature them in our blog.

Next Hurricane?, Severe Weather Threat, & Today's Foreacast

2007-07-14T09:16:00.000-04:00

Today's Forecast

Today we will mostly likely see showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Right now (as of 8:39 am), there are some showers up toward Charleston, SC. They will continue to bring a lightning show to the residents of Coastal Charleston county.

There are also a few showers streaming toward the north around the area. So, there is a chance of an isolated shower throughout the morning hours. But, mainly on the island, we will see not rain until this afternoon with daytime heating.

Today's forecast is calling for scattered showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon at around a 60% chance. Today's high will be in the mid - upper eighties on the island and lower ninties inland, mainly west of I-95.

We could also have some isolated strong to severe thunderstorms around the area. So, be sure to stay tuned to the Skidaway Island Weather Center for the latest information.

Hail Percentage
The picture below depicts the percentage chance of severe hail. (>3/4" in diameter)

Wind Percentage

The picture below depicts the percentage chace of severe wind. (>58 mph)

Also, remember to buy a NOAA Weather Radio as they come in handy during severe weather and hurricane events.

Hurricane Outlook

We might have our next hurricane of the season. Some of the long range models, well, one of the long range models the Candian Model is showing that a strong low pressure will devlop in the bahamas later this coming week, around mid week.

At this time, only one model is showing this to develop, the CMC, like I said above. The picture below shows the model run image 132 hours out:

Models out this long usually aren't very reliable. But, the Canadian model was the only model to pick up Tropical Storm Berry before any other model did.

Today's Weather Synopsis

2007-07-13T15:21:00.001-04:00

UPDATE: The sea breeze boundary is developing and is creating isloated heavy downpours around the area. This, in combination with daytime heating, should continue for the next several hours. Stay tuned to the Skidaway Island Weather Center Blog for more information... We are tracking the storms. The image below shows what we are tracking right now:

Today we had fairly active weather to our south as a frontal boundary, in combination with daytime heating, caused showers to develop in Parts of Florida and southern Georgia. Most of the forecast models weren't showing that the precipitation would come this far north. It is to our south right now but some of the activity may get as far north as Hinesville before it fizzles out because of lose of energy, namely daytime heating. Below is a picture that shows the precipitation from radar site KTLH in Tallahassee, FL.

http://img353.imageshack.us/img353/4974/07130701kd7.png

On the image are the radar echos, current temperatures, county advisories, and lightning data from the United States Precision Lightning Network. All of this information is displayed on our Live! Skidaway Island Pinpoint Doppler that is avaible to be viewed on our website at http://www.myskidawayisland.com/weather/ . On there, you will see a regional radar map as well as the local Pinpoint Doppler radar image.

Today will not be as hot as the post two days. Pleasant air is behind the stationary front that is stalled just north of our area. That pleasant air most likely will not reach our area this weekend. Nor will it reach us next week. This weekend however we will see a high chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. That frontal boundary that is stalled today will move southward and then stall again over right about Jacksonville, FL. This will give us that chance of rain that I talked about above.

Forecast for this Weekend & Tropical Outlook

2007-07-12T22:49:00.000-04:00

Hello Everyone,

Your forecast for this weekend is looking very wet. The only good news is that temperatures around the area will be in the upper eighties inland and mid-lower eighties on the island. But, you probably won't be able to tell a difference due to the fact that humidity will be on the rise as a front will be a trigger for showers and thunderstorms mainly on Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

The Atlantic Basin isn't looking that active at all. We are seeing a tropical disturbance that is just west of the Azores. None of the models are indicating any tropical development from this disturbance. The models aren't even consistent on its development into a tropical wave. It will continue to move into an area that is unfavorable for development.

Otherwise, there are no signs of tropical development during the next 24 to 48 hours.

Severe Weather Yesterday

2007-07-12T08:14:00.000-04:00

We didn't get any severe weather yesterday on the island itself. Even though, there were many Local Storm Reports that reported anything from Lightning damage to rainfall accumulation to waterspouts to tornadoes to high winds. The area saw almost everything yesterday.

Unfortunately, the island only got 0.02" of rain. We sure do need the rain, but we did not get it yesterday.

Today, we will see a high in the upper eighties to the lower ninties. There is not a heat advisory in effect; however, you can still be impacted by the effects of heat. So, please drink plenty of water and NOT soda or other caffeinated drinks as they dehydrate you.

Also, there is no chance of severe weather or rain for that matter; but, we could see a sea-breeze shower. I highly doubt we will see a rain shower. It is a possibility however.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #509

2007-07-11T16:16:00.000-04:00

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for our area:

SEL9 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

400 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTER IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE GA/SC BORDER...AND THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH STORM MERGERS. HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF THIS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH BACKGROUND FLOW OF 30-40 KT IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS SE GA/SC AND PERHAPS INTO SRN NC THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035. ...THOMPSON
SEL9

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE
WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTER IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
GA/SC BORDER...AND THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THE NEXT FEW HOURS THROUGH STORM MERGERS. HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF THIS
CONVECTION...ALONG WITH BACKGROUND FLOW OF 30-40 KT IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS...SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS SE GA/SC AND PERHAPS INTO SRN NC
THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT MAY ALSO INCREASE JUST INLAND
FROM THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION INTERACTS WITH THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26035.

...THOMPSON
Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. WOUS64 KWNS 111959

Hurricane & Weather Outlook

2007-07-10T10:49:00.000-04:00

In our area, high pressure is dominating the weather that is going to affect us later today and the rest of this week; but with daytime heating and sea breeze boundary, we could see a pop up shower and thunderstorm initiating later this afternoon, probably after 3 PM.

It looks to be a very quiet week in the tropics. There is nothing of any concern in the Atlantic. While in the Eastern Pacific, we have a tropical depression, 4-E. Details are below:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/143524.shtml?5day#contents

Around the country, we are continueing to see the flash flooding in parts of Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Elsewhere, we see an upper level low that is spinning its way to the east just north of Minnesota. This, in combination with daytime heating, will allow for some severe weather to fire up later today in parts of the Midwest including the states of Wisconsin, all of Michigan, Northern Illinois, and northwestern Indiana. There is also a severe weather threat in the flood ravaged areas of TX and OK. The synoptic map below shows the current weather around the country.

Hot & Humid

2007-07-09T09:28:00.000-04:00

That is the title for this week. Today, we will see highs well into the eighties, if not lower ninties. Heat indicies will be in the one hundreds for today and most of the week. Keep in mind, the forecasted high heat indicies are no criteria for a Heat Advisory to be issued. However, with the daytime highs getting as high as they are forecasted to be, we could see a stray heat index value of 105°F - 110°F.

The rain will stay in the forecast for most of this week. The exception though will be on Wednesday and Thursday when we will see a slighter chance of rain than any of the other days this week.

Right now, there is nothing of any real concern in the tropics. We will keep you advised of any tropical troubles that develop.

New Weather Website Design

2007-07-07T22:04:00.000-04:00

Hello All!

We are proud to announce the newly designed Skidaway Island Weather Center. We have been working hard to make the site the best that it can be and have launched new exciting areas of the site. One of which is our Hurricane Center.

The hurricane center, once finished, will feature visible satellite imagery as well as information regarding current storm information. We will also show a current water temperature image for the Atlantic to help you see how warm the waters of the Atlantic are. As you know, hurricanes thrive on the ocean water's warmth to survive.

In addition to that, we have more areas to choose from. Some include severe weather center and our new forecast center.

Hot & Humid

2007-07-07T22:03:00.000-04:00

We are getting back into the groove of summer with highs in the lower to mid ninties and lows in the seventies. The humidity should stay with us through at least the beginning of next week.

Independence Day

2007-07-04T08:16:00.000-04:00

It looks like it is going to be a great fourth of July. Temperatures today should reach the lower eighties on the beaches and the mid to upper eighties inland, mainly west of I-16. There is a very low chance of rain today. So, that should give us a mix of sunshine and clouds throughout the day. It should be unseasonably nice today, low humidities and high winds will give us a nice and less humid day. This is rather uncommon for this time of year around Savannah.

Winds will be swift out of the east at 20 to 30 miles per hour. This should give us that chance of rip currents along the coast today. If you are at the beach and in the water, be aware of where lifeguards are located and swim near them, as they will help you if you are caught in a rip current.

Remember, if you would like us to write about something on our blog, email us at weather@myskidawayisland.com .

Rip Currents Reported Around the Area

2007-07-03T16:41:00.000-04:00

Already we have seen a few rip currents around the area. They have been reported on various beaches across the coastal empire and the low country. Here are the storm reports that have been pouring into the Skidaway Island Weather Center throughout the afternoon. Stay safe out there.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON
357 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2007

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY... ...LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
0930 AM RIP CURRENTS 6 ENE SULLIVANS ISLAND 32.80N 79.75W
LOCAL SURF SHOP REPORTS SEVERAL RIP CURRENTS ON ISLE OF PALMS.

1200 PM RIP CURRENTS SAPELO ISLAND 31.40N 81.28W NATIONAL ESTUARINE RESEARCH RESERVE SYSTEM EMPLOYEE REPORTS A FEW RIP CURRENTS...STRONG LONG SHORE CURRENT AND 4 FOOT BREAKERS.

0200 PM RIP CURRENTS TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
LIFEGUARDS REPORT SEVERAL RIP CURRENTS WITH 3 RESCUES ON THE SOUTH END OF THE BEACH. 5 TO 7 FOOT BREAKERS AND MINOR EROSION WITH THE LAST HIGH TIDE.

0205 PM HIGH SURF TYBEE ISLAND 32.00N 80.85W
LOCAL SURF SHOP REPORTS 4 TO 5 FOOT BREAKERS.

0205 PM HIGH SURF 10 E SHELLMAN BLUFF 31.57N 81.15W
5 FOOT BREAKERS WITH MINOR EROSION ON SAINT CATHERINES ISLAND.

0231 PM RIP CURRENTS KIAWAH ISLAND 32.61N 80.08W
BEACHWALKER COUNTY PARK LIFEGUARDS REPORT A FEW RIP CURRENTS EARLIER TODAY.

0310 PM RIP CURRENTS KIAWAH ISLAND 32.61N 80.08W BEACHWALKER COUNTY PARK LIFEGUARDS REPORT 4 RIP CURRENTS.

Tropical Outlook & July 4th Forecast

2007-07-03T09:01:00.000-04:00

July 4th Forecast

Tomorrow is looking to become a great day for any of those outdoor plans you may have. We will have a high in the lower eighties for tommorrow. We should see a mostly sunny sky with that giving way to a mix of sunshine and clouds in the late afternoon and evening hours. Through the overnight, it is going to be great for the fireworks that will be going off around the area. It will be nice and pleasant and it will be somewhat windy. Low humidites and dewpoints will make it feel unseasonably nice tommorrow.

However, there is a very slight chance of a shower tommorrow in the morning and then in the afternoon. This should, though, be in the morning and early afternoon. The chance should not stay around through the overnight, mainly after 6 p.m.

Also, remember that rip currents are a threat. And, in combination with an onshore flow, there is an elevated risk of these currents. If you are caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore and once you are out of the rip current swim back to shore. Also remember NOT to panic when you are caught in one.

Keep in mind that there is a High Surf Advisory for today, July 3, 2007. This expires tonight at 12 Midnight EDT. A High Surf Advisory means that conditions are favorable for high waves at 5 feet and can get as high as 7 feet. It also means there is a risk for beach erosion and rip currents.

The entire text is below:

1037 am EDT Tue Jul 3 2007...High surf advisory in effect until midnight EDT tonight...The National Weather Service in Charleston has issued a high surf advisory...which is in effect until midnight EDT tonight.

Unusually strong and persistent east to northeast winds will produce breakers of at least 5 feet along the Georgia coast through atleast this afternoon. Breaker heights near 7 feet are possible...before beginning to lower this evening as wind speeds decrease. A high surf advisory means that high surf will affect beaches inthe advisory area... producing rip currents and localized beach erosion.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio all hazards...TV...or your localnews source for the latest weather information from the NationalWeather Service. Additional information is also available on theinternet at weather.Gov/chs.

Tropical Outlook

It looks like the area of disturbed weather between South America and Africa has some convection associated with it. It is visible on the infrared satellite image this morning.

The area that I am refering to is the small circle of white in the bottom center of the image. This does have the potential to develop, but, given the dry air around the disturbed area will not let this system develop very quickly. The global forecast models do not suggest that this system will develop into anything of concern. However, it does have the potential to develop very slowly over the next few days. Even then, it won't, most likely, be a threat to the United States.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there are no immediate areas of concern. It is quite calm around the Atlantic.

Remember, if you have anything that you would like us to write about, email us at weather@myskidawayisland.com .

Golf Ball Size Hail on the Island & Tropical Outlook

2007-07-02T07:42:00.000-04:00

We had some pretty severe storms yesterday as a frontal boundary came through our area. A trained spotter on the island reported golf ball size hail on the west side of the island between Oakridge and Delegal Creek Marina in The Landings. When this report was sent, The National Weather Service in Charleston issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Chatham county specifically for most of the islands. If you have any pictures of hail, email us at weather@myskidawayisland.com and we will put them on the blog.

Another large weather event that happened yesterday was lightning. While I was out and about, there were many lightning strokes visible on the horizon. We had some lightning damage on Marshwood Golf Course Hole 13. This happens and shows you the dangers of lightning and why you should get inside when you hear thunder. If you have any pictures of this or another lightning event email them to us at weather@myskidawayisland.com .

Here are some pictures of the event:

There was a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for parts of Central and Northern Georgia. But, amazingly, most of the severe weather warnings were issued in Southeast Georgia. There was more severe weather up in Northern Georgia, more severe meaning large hail (>1") and high winds (>65mph).

Forecast

It looks like we will see some thunderstorms today as well, with high temperatures on the island reaching into the lower eighties. Humidities should be rather high though so a heat advisory may be issued later this week. Throughout the beginning of the work week, we should see a chance of rain. That chance will continue through July 4th. But, the chance should diminish quite quickly by Thursday with highs in the lower ninties. Even then, July 4th should be nice with a mix of sun and clouds and only a chance of rain at about 20%.

So, Here is the July 4th Forecast:

Mix of Sun and Clouds
Chance of Rain 20%

High: 88
Low: 73

Hurricane Update

The tropics are looking very quiet throughout the Atlantic. We do see a tropical wave that is way out in the east Atlantic. This, in combination with low wind shear values, could develop into some type of tropical low later this week. Two of the prominent forecast models are forecasting this wave to develop into a tropical low and move toward Puerto Rico. At this point, I have no reason to believe that this will not happen.

Welcome to the Skidaway Island Weather Center's New Blog

2007-07-01T20:26:00.000-04:00

Hello Everyone!

This is the new Skidaway Island Weather Center's Blog.